Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Lakeview Park (Loughgall)


	Loughgall		Newry City

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.40	2.85
	2.10	3.40	2.93
	2.16	3.58	2.89	Watch
	2.07	3.35	2.90
	2.20	4.01	2.90
	2.13	3.40	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.21)	3.52 ↓ (3.69)	2.88 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loughgall
42.6%

Draw
25.8%

Newry City
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

25.2%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

25.7%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loughgall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loughgall than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Loughgall - Newry City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 13th in the NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: ) and 6th in the Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Loughgall won 3.

In recent outings, Loughgall has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Newry City shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Loughgall may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Loughgall has recorded 7 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:17 (averaging 1.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Loughgall against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Newry City	10	4	3	3	16:18	-2	15
10	Loughgall	10	3	4	3	14:19	-5	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loughgall FC
Northern Irish Championship
25.09.26	Glenavon - Loughgall	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Loughgall - Armagh City	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Loughgall - Ballinamallard United	1:6 ✺
28.08.26	Loughgall - Warrenpoint Town	3:3 ✺
22.08.26	Ards - Loughgall	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTLTW
- Newry City
Northern Irish Championship
25.09.26	Newry City - Harland & Wolff Welders	3:2 ✺
18.09.26	Newry City - Annagh United	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Strabane Athletic - Newry City	2:2 ✺
04.09.26	Newry City - Armagh City	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Institute FC - Newry City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.07.25	Newry City - Loughgall	0:3
16.07.24	Newry City - Loughgall	1:1
Northern Irish Premiership
27.04.24	Newry City - Loughgall	1:4
13.02.24	Loughgall - Newry City	0:0
21.10.23	Loughgall - Newry City	3:1
05.08.23	Newry City - Loughgall	0:3
Northern Irish Championship
16.04.22	Newry City - Loughgall	0:2

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