Match Info

efbet League - Round 11

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kolev K. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	20:00	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Slovenia	19:00	SportKlub 6


	Ludogorets Razgrad		Arda Kardzhali

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.20	8.50	Watch
	1.42	4.20	6.75
	1.50	4.10	6.40
	1.44	4.41	7.99
	1.5	4.08	6.6	Watch
	1.42	4.25	7.50
	1.41	4.16	8.42	Watch
	1.40	4.20	6.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.55)	4.2 ↑ (3.78)	7.37 ↑ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ludogorets Razgrad
65.1%

Draw
22.2%

Arda Kardzhali
12.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24.3%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

23.5%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ludogorets Razgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ludogorets Razgrad's performance.

Arda Kardzhali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95%	5%	0%

Ludogorets Razgrad - Arda Kardzhali Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ludogorets (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Ludogorets Razgrad (1.45) (votes: 90%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Ludogorets Razgrad will win (19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Bonmann H. (G) 42. Shishkov S. 4. Abdelmaguid H. 15. Kurtulus E. 2. Andersson J. 6. Zhelizko I. 23. Duarte D. 37. Tekpetey B. 14. Stanic P. 11. Caio Vidal 12. Rwan Cruz	1. Gospodinov A. (G) 6. Popov V. 24. Paskalev M. 5. Lyubenov V. 35. Velkovski D. 80. Kotev L. 21. Velev V. 10. Kovachev S. 39. Vutov A. 91. Ivanov S. 9. Nikolov G.
Substitutes
20. Camara A. 18. Chochev I. 77. Erick Marcus 13. Grbic I. (G) 8. Hadziahmetovic A. 26. Kaloc F. 16. Nathan Fernandes 3. Nedyalkov A. 22. Polendakov M. 44. Rekik O. 5. Terziev G.	26. Akandzha B. 16. Bachev P. 2. Derick 22. Georgiev Y. (G) 11. Kabov A. 99. Karagaren B. 70. Makni N. 44. Traore A. 18. Vasilev S.
Coaches
Jovicevic I.	Tunchev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Caio Vidal ⚽, Rwan Cruz (A),
21', Abdelmaguid H. 🟨,
30', Nikolov G. 🟥,
41', Caio Vidal 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Tekpetey B. ⚽, Rwan Cruz (A),
45+3', Velev V. 🟨,
45+4', 3 - 0, Tekpetey B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Stanic P. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
46', Duarte D. ↓, Hadziahmetovic A. ↑,
56', 4 - 0, Rwan Cruz ⚽,
56', Tekpetey B. ↓, Erick Marcus ↑,
57', Vutov A. ↓, Bachev P. ↑,
63', Kovachev S. ↓, Kabov A. ↑,
63', Ivanov S. ↓, Karagaren B. ↑,
68', Lyubenov V. 🟨,
68', Caio Vidal ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
78', Rwan Cruz ↓, Chochev I. ↑,
79', Lyubenov V. ↓, Derick ↑,
86', 5 - 0, Zhelizko I. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group: ) and 6th in the Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ludogorets won 1.

Ludogorets has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Arda is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this match, Ludogorets enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Ludogorets in today's match, at odds of 1.49.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Ludogorets has recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 37:15 (averaging 2.2:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ludogorets against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 23:9 goals (averaging 2.6:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ludogorets	11	8	2	1	21:9	12	26
6	Arda	12	5	3	4	16:18	-2	18

Last Results with these Odds

Ludogorets Razgrad - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 59.5%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ludogorets Razgrad
Club Friendly
04.10.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Cherno More Varna	5:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
14.09.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Septemvri Sofia	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Lokomotiv Sofia - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Spartak Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Slavia Sofia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWWTT
- Arda Kardzhali
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Arda Kardzhali	2:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
19.09.26	Arda Kardzhali - Cherno More Varna	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	CSKA Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	4:1 ✺
04.09.26	Arda Kardzhali - Botev Plovdiv	2:3 ✺
31.08.26	Arda Kardzhali - Botev Vratsa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
15.04.26	Arda Kardzhali - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:0
09.11.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Arda Kardzhali	2:3
26.05.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Arda Kardzhali	2:2
09.05.25	Arda Kardzhali - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:1
04.12.24	Arda Kardzhali - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:4
03.08.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Arda Kardzhali	5:1
15.04.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Arda Kardzhali	2:0

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