Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2024, Tuesday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Martins T. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 1
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Switzerland	RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport Player, RTS Sport Player, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
Turkey	D Smart GO, Spor Smart 1


	Lugano		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.9	1.62	Watch
	5	4	1.65
	4.75	4	1.66
	5.2	4	1.67
	4.78	4.18	1.62	Watch
	4.6	4	1.57
	5.1	4.28	1.66	Watch
	4.65	4.05	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.82 ↑ (3.35)	4.05 ↑ (3.4)	1.64 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
19.5%

Draw
23.2%

Fenerbahçe
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

27.2%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

26.8%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugano's form might have worsened.

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fenerbahçe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fenerbahçe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
1%	9.8%	89.2%

Lugano - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (90 of 101 users predict this - 89.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.03% – 95.19%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 22. El Wafi A. 23. Valenzuela M. 25. Bislimi U. 8. Grgic A. 20. Doumbia O. 21. Cimignani Y. 31. Aliseda I. 10. Bottani M. (C)	40. Livakovic D. (G) 21. Osayi-Samuel B. 2. Soyuncu C. 6. Djiku A. 24. Oosterwolde J. 53. Szymanski S. 33. Krunic R. 35. Fred 10. Tadic D. 9. Dzeko E. (C) 11. Kent R.
Substitutes
29. Belhadj M. 2. Brault-Guillard Z. 27. Dos Santos D. 5. Hajdari A. 7. Macek R. 18. Mahou H. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 99. Mina D. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K. 28. Ryter Y.	95. Akcicek Y. 70. Aydin O. 54. Cetin E. (G) 67. Demir D. (G) 28. Elmaz B. 7. Kadioglu F. 17. Kahveci I. C. 16. Muldur M. 50. Rodrigo Becao 23. Tosun C. 8. Yandas M. H. 5. Yuksek I.
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, El Wafi A. ⚽, Grgic A. (A),
18', Soyuncu C. 🟨,
29', El Wafi A. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Dzeko E. (Pen),
45+3', Tadic D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', 1 - 2, Dzeko E. ⚽, Tadic D. (A),
59', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
61', Cimignani Y. ↓, Mai L. ↑,
64', 2 - 2, Bislimi U. ⚽, Bottani M. (A),
67', 2 - 3, Dzeko E. ⚽, Szymanski S. (A),
68', Osayi-Samuel B. ↓, Muldur M. ↑,
69', Tadic D. ↓, Kadioglu F. ↑,
69', Kent R. ↓, Kahveci I. C. ↑,
69', Bottani M. 🟨,
70', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
71', Grgic A. 🟨,
72', Aliseda I. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
72', Bislimi U. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
73', Bottani M. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
74', 2 - 4, Kadioglu F. ⚽, Fred (A),
77', Zanotti M. 🟨,
80', Grgic A. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
80', Dzeko E. ↓, Tosun C. ↑,
86', Fred ↓, Yandas M. H. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 4, Valenzuela M. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stockhorn Arena.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Fenerbahçe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Lugano have a series of home games.

In this match Fenerbahçe is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
20.07.24	Lugano - Grasshoppers	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Lugano - Parma	3:1 ✺
06.07.24	Lugano - Aarau	0:1 ✺
03.07.24	Lugano - Bellinzona	5:1 ✺
29.06.24	Lugano - Stade Nyonnais	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLWW
- Fenerbahçe
Club Friendly
18.07.24	Fenerbahçe - Hull City	5:1 ✺
13.07.24	Strasbourg - Fenerbahçe	0:4 ✺
10.07.24	Fenerbahçe - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
06.07.24	Admira - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
29.06.24	Fenerbahçe - Petrolul Ploieşti	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLTW

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