Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: AIL Arena (Lugano) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	13:45	Disney+
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Sport Austria 7
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	13:45	Disney+
Colombia	11:45	Disney+
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Estonia	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 15
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	16:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Kosovo	18:45	Arena Premium 1
Lithuania	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
North Macedonia	18:45	Arena Premium 1
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	11:45	Disney+
Philippines	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	17:45	DAZN / App
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 1, RTS 2
Singapore	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	18:45	SportKlub 2
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Play RTS, Play RTS, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	23:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 16
United Kingdom	17:45	HBO Max
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+


	Lugano		Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.70	3.50
	2.00	3.40	3.20
	2.15	3.55	3.20
	2.10	3.68	3.45
	2.39	3.65	2.77	Watch
	2.06	3.60	3.40
	2.01	3.71	3.51
	1.95	3.45	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.77)	3.59 ↑ (3.47)	3.27 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
45.1%

Draw
26.2%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
28.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.8%

26.9%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

27%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crvena Zvezda Belgrade might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crvena Zvezda Belgrade could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	20%	50%

Lugano - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 12 - 30%). Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 20 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crvena Zvezda: 34.5% – 65.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 25%). Crvena Zvezda (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.55) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Lugano (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 2 - 40%). Crvena Zvezda (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. von Ballmoos D. (G) 6. Papadopoulos A. 17. Mai L. 3. Delcroix H. 2. Karimov B. 25. Bislimi U. 8. Grgic A. 21. Cimignani Y. 11. Steffen R. (C) 27. Dos Santos D. 9. Ajeti Al.	1. Matheus (G) 37. Lucic V. 60. Gashtarov M. 45. Gudelj S. 3. Nakayama Y. 23. Ristic M. 21. Elsnik T. 20. Handel T. 33. Krunic R. (C) 22. Kostov V. 9. Dieng B.
Substitutes
7. Alioski E. 91. Behrens K. 22. Castro Espinosa B. D. 28. Gebhardt F. (G) 4. Kelvin D. 14. Kendouci A. 26. Marques M. 99. Mina D. (G) 30. Moncada D. 24. Pihlstrom E.	7. Arnautovic M. 6. Bajo M. 8. Balov K. 70. Cham M. 77. Gutesa I. (G) 19. Kim Ye-geon 50. Radanovic S. (G) 55. Saric D. 27. Strika M. 30. Tebo Uchenna F. 13. Veljkovic M.
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Riera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Ajeti Al. ⚽, Steffen R. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Elsnik T. ⚽, Gashtarov M. (A),
33', Kostov V. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Steffen R. 🟨,
55', Mai L. 🟨,
63', Steffen R. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
63', Ajeti Al. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
64', Handel T. ↓, Cham M. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Krunic R. ⚽, Cham M. (A),
73', Karimov B. ↓, Moncada D. ↑,
75', Lucic V. ↓, Balov K. ↑,
75', Ristic M. ↓, Strika M. ↑,
79', Dos Santos D. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
79', Delcroix H. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
81', Krunic R. ↓, Bajo M. ↑,
81', Dieng B. ↓, Arnautovic M. ↑,
82', Gudelj S. 🟨,
84', 2 - 2, Moncada D. ⚽, Cimignani Y. (A),
88', Bajo M. 🟨,
89', 3 - 2, Grgic A. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Gashtarov M. 🟨,

Preview

Lugano is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Crvena Zvezda is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Crvena Zvezda could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Lugano has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Recently, Crvena Zvezda has had a run of games away from home.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Lugano: Carbone (Inactive) Cassano C. (Knee Injury) Zanotti M. (Red Card).

Confirmed absences for Crvena Zvezda: Abu Fani M. (Red Card) Bukari O. (Red Card).

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugano	2	2	0	0	8:4	4	6

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Lugano: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 33.75%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
10.10.26	Lugano - Luzern	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Lugano - Verona	1:3 ✺
Swiss Super League
20.09.26	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	0:4 ✺
16.09.26	Lugano - St. Gallen	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Lugano - Young Boys	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWWT
- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
10.10.26	Radnički 1923 - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:3 ✺
20.09.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Radnički Niš	3:0 ✺
17.09.26	Železničar Pančevo - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	IMT Novi Beograd - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
10.09.26	Radnik Surdulica - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWWT

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