Match Info

Premier League - Round 25

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Lugazi FC Stadium (Najjembe)


	Lugazi Municipal		Kitara

	1	X	2
	4.55	3.1	1.75
	4.69	3.1	1.73
	4.8	2.9	1.75
	5.11	3.13	1.71
	3.8	3	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.59 ↑ (3.8)	3.05 ↑ (3)	1.75 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugazi Municipal
19.5%

Draw
29.4%

Kitara
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

28.9%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

28.4%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugazi Municipal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Kitara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugazi Municipal than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kitara than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Lugazi Municipal - Kitara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
82', 1 - 1, ⚽,
88', 🟥,
90', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 4).

Recent form of Lugazi has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kitara has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kitara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kitara is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lugazi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:7. (average 0:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Lugazi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Lugazi	5	2	0	3	4:9	-5	6
9	Kitara	3	1	2	0	3:2	1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lugazi Municipal FC
Ugandan Super League
22.04.26	Lugazi Municipal - Villa	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Lugazi Municipal - Entebbe UPPC	2:1 ✺
Ugandan Cup
17.03.26	NEC FC - Lugazi Municipal	2:0 ✺
Ugandan Super League
14.03.26	Lugazi Municipal - Kampala City Council	0:3 ✺
11.03.26	Uganda Revenue Authority SC - Lugazi Municipal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLL
- Kitara FC
Ugandan Super League
22.04.26	Kitara - Calvary	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Kampala City Council - Kitara	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Vipers - Kitara	0:0 ✺
Ugandan Cup
05.04.26	Kitara - Express	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Kitara - Bunyaruguru United	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
30.10.25	Kitara - Lugazi Municipal	4:0
15.04.25	Kitara - Lugazi Municipal	0:0
14.09.24	Lugazi Municipal - Kitara	0:3

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