Match Info

Date: 6 March 2022, Sunday


	Lugo		Alcorcón

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.87	2.9	4.4
	1.95	3.25	4.05	Watch
	1.91	2.95	4.6
	1.93	3.2	4.99
				Watch
	1.92	3.24	4.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.8)	3.16 ↓ (3.36)	4.52 ↑ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
49.3%

Draw
29.9%

Alcorcón
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

27.7%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

22.2%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+15.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Lugo - Alcorcón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 14 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Lugo has the most likely position - 15 (10.72%), has project points - 54, has currently - 37, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Alcorcón has the most likely position - 22 (91.64%), has project points - 27, has currently - 14, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 26, very small importance 7, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 0.

Recent matches Lugo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alcorcón is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alcorcón could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lugo is a favorite.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Lugo won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 16-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
26.02.22	Las Palmas - Lugo	2:2 ✺
20.02.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:0 ✺
13.02.22	Lugo - Amorebieta	1:1 ✺
05.02.22	Real Sociedad B - Lugo	1:1 ✺
29.01.22	Lugo - Burgos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLTTW
- AD Alcorcón
Spanish LaLiga2
27.02.22	Alcorcón - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
20.02.22	Fuenlabrada - Alcorcón	2:2 ✺
13.02.22	Alcorcón - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
04.02.22	Burgos - Alcorcón	3:1 ✺
30.01.22	Leganés - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
26.11.21	Alcorcón - Lugo	1:1
17.04.21	Lugo - Alcorcón	1:3
20.11.20	Alcorcón - Lugo	1:0
05.07.20	Alcorcón - Lugo	2:2
01.09.19	Lugo - Alcorcón	2:4
31.03.19	Alcorcón - Lugo	0:0
10.11.18	Lugo - Alcorcón	0:1

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