Match Info

Date: 8 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Alcoraz (Huesca)

Referee: Reig S. A. (Esp)


	Huesca		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.5
	1.72	3.45	5.1
	1.77	3.35	4.6
	1.83	3.42	5.08
				Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.55	Watch
	1.75	3.55	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.82)	3.42 ↑ (3.4)	4.78 ↑ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Huesca
52.9%

Draw
27.4%

Lugo
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

27.7%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

27.3%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Huesca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Huesca than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	5.3%	15.8%

Huesca - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: Huesca will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 11 and 18).

Huesca has the most likely position - 8 (5.98%), has project points - 60, has currently - 11, has a small chance of relegated (9%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (23%), has a small chance of promoted (14%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (12.81%), has project points - 46, has currently - 8, has a chance of relegated (43%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 30, importance 32, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Huesca won 3.

Huesca is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lugo is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Huesca is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Huesca won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Huesca won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Huesca
Spanish LaLiga2
02.10.22	Granada - Huesca	0:0 ✺
24.09.22	Huesca - Leganés	1:0 ✺
18.09.22	Deportivo Alavés - Huesca	2:1 ✺
11.09.22	Huesca - Málaga	1:0 ✺
04.09.22	Huesca - Ibiza	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TWLWW
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
02.10.22	Ibiza - Lugo	3:2 ✺
25.09.22	Lugo - Real Oviedo	0:0 ✺
17.09.22	Villarreal B - Lugo	3:1 ✺
10.09.22	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
04.09.22	Zaragoza - Lugo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
20.02.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:0
13.09.21	Lugo - Huesca	3:2
25.01.20	Huesca - Lugo	2:1
19.10.19	Lugo - Huesca	3:2
21.05.18	Lugo - Huesca	0:2
17.12.17	Huesca - Lugo	3:0
27.05.17	Huesca - Lugo	1:0

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