Match Info

Date: 23 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Trujillo Suarez D. (Esp)


	Lugo		Burgos

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.6	Watch
	2.25	2.7	3.4
	2.4	3	3.2
	2.28	2.75	3.6
	2.33	2.8	4.06
				Watch
	2.2	2.96	3.72	Watch
	2.27	2.85	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.53)	2.87 ↓ (3.07)	3.6 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
41.2%

Draw
32.7%

Burgos
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

30.3%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

30.5%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burgos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burgos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
51.7%	37.9%	10.3%

Lugo - Burgos Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 15 - 51.7%). Burgos will win (votes: 3 - 10.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 37.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugo: 33.5% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (16.46%), has project points - 45, has currently - 9, has a chance of relegated (49%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Burgos has the most likely position - 6 (6.77%), has project points - 62, has currently - 21, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (27%), has a chance of promoted (16%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 35, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Lugo is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Burgos is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
16.10.22	Málaga - Lugo	3:2 ✺
12.10.22	Lugo - Las Palmas	0:1 ✺
08.10.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:1 ✺
02.10.22	Ibiza - Lugo	3:2 ✺
25.09.22	Lugo - Real Oviedo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTLT
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
16.10.22	Burgos - Mirandés	2:1 ✺
12.10.22	FC Andorra - Burgos	0:1 ✺
08.10.22	Burgos - Deportivo Alavés	3:0 ✺
01.10.22	Villarreal B - Burgos	0:0 ✺
25.09.22	Burgos - Levante	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
20.07.22	Lugo - Burgos	1:3
Spanish LaLiga2
29.01.22	Lugo - Burgos	1:0
17.10.21	Burgos - Lugo	1:1
Club Friendly
17.07.21	Burgos - Lugo	0:0

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