Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 17

Date: 27 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)


	Lugo		Levante

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.3	1.85	Watch
	3.9	3.3	1.85
	4.4	3.3	1.85
	4	3.3	1.89
	4.44	3.47	1.92
	4	3.2	1.95	Watch
	4.45	3.28	1.88	Watch
	4.1	3.35	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.19 ↑ (3.7)	3.31 ↑ (2.9)	1.89 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
22.3%

Draw
28.2%

Levante
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

32.2%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

31.3%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Levante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Levante's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Levante than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Levante, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.6%	11.4%	80%

Lugo - Levante Predictions

Users Predictions: Levante will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (23.65%), has project points - 41, has currently - 14, has a good chance of relegated (64%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Levante has the most likely position - 1 (20.33%), has project points - 71, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (38%), has a chance of promoted (46%), has a chance of win league (20%).

This event has quality 32, importance 50, match rating 41. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Lugo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Levante is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Levante is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
20.11.22	FC Andorra - Lugo	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.11.22	Arenas Club de Getxo - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
07.11.22	Lugo - Cartagena	1:1 ✺
02.11.22	Eibar - Lugo	1:0 ✺
30.10.22	Lugo - Mirandés	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLT
- Levante UD
Spanish LaLiga2
20.11.22	Levante - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.11.22	Olot - Levante	0:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
06.11.22	Albacete Balompié - Levante	2:3 ✺
03.11.22	Granada - Levante	0:0 ✺
31.10.22	Levante - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.18	Levante - Lugo	2:0
30.10.18	Lugo - Levante	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
02.06.17	Lugo - Levante	1:0
07.01.17	Levante - Lugo	1:0

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