Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 15

Date: 7 November 2022, Monday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Fuentes Molina A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Finland	CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Lugo		Cartagena

	1	X	2
	2.87	2.9	2.75	Watch
	2.75	2.87	2.55
	2.9	3	2.6
	2.85	2.85	2.6
	2.98	3	2.74
	2.8	2.9	2.7	Watch
	2.9	2.99	2.62	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.6)	2.93 ↑ (2.85)	2.65 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
32.7%

Draw
32%

Cartagena
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

32.4%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

30.3%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cartagena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.7%	41.3%	37%

Lugo - Cartagena Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 10 - 21.7%). Cartagena will win (votes: 17 - 37%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 41.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 27.1% – 55.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (14.15%), has project points - 45, has currently - 13, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cartagena has the most likely position - 3 (7.84%), has project points - 63, has currently - 24, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (30%), has a chance of promoted (21%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

This event has quality 31, importance 41, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Lugo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cartagena is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lugo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
02.11.22	Eibar - Lugo	1:0 ✺
30.10.22	Lugo - Mirandés	0:0 ✺
23.10.22	Lugo - Burgos	2:0 ✺
16.10.22	Málaga - Lugo	3:2 ✺
12.10.22	Lugo - Las Palmas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTWLL
- FC Cartagena
Spanish LaLiga2
03.11.22	Cartagena - Málaga	2:1 ✺
30.10.22	Cartagena - Granada	0:0 ✺
23.10.22	Las Palmas - Cartagena	1:0 ✺
16.10.22	Cartagena - Ibiza	2:0 ✺
12.10.22	Tenerife - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
08.04.22	Lugo - Cartagena	1:0
18.09.21	Cartagena - Lugo	2:1
24.05.21	Lugo - Cartagena	2:1
04.10.20	Cartagena - Lugo	2:1

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