Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 2

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Lugo		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	5
	1.55	3.6	5	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.15
	1.67	3.69	5.16
	1.66	3.13	6.55	Watch
	1.65	3.54	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (2.28)	3.48 ↑ (3.05)	5.34 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
56.3%

Draw
26.5%

Real Avilés
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

30%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

29.1%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugo's performance.

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Avilés might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Avilés could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lugo - Real Avilés Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (C) 20. Lopez I. 24. Gaya J. 16. Jose Amo 17. Caballo D. 8. Balboa A. 5. Carbonell A. 9. Celorio N. 11. Pastrana V. 19. Unzueta I. 23. Junior L.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 5. Babin J. (C) 16. Gomez A. 2. Ortega G. 18. Gete A. 8. Bautista K. 14. Cayarga B. 17. Bari Q. 9. Santamaria A. 7. Hernandez R.
Substitutes
10. Alba T. 3. Garriz I. 7. Gonzalez J. 2. Merino J. 6. Nicholas N. 13. Piedra I. (G) 14. Presa K. 15. Reniero N. 18. Roson D. 22. Samanes S. 4. Trigueros P.	13. Almodovar N. (G) 21. Alvarez P. 26. Carracedo O. 3. Diaz V. 12. Granero B. 22. Isi Ros 19. Poquet N. 11. Rubio R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Lopez I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lopez I. ↓, Merino J. ↑,
46', Junior L. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
56', Samanes S. 🟨,
66', Balboa A. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
66', Pastrana V. ↓, Presa K. ↑,
70', Hernandez R. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
72', 🟨,
77', Cayarga B. ↓, Alvarez P. ↑,
77', Celorio N. ↓, Alba T. ↑,
80', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
82', Santamaria A. ↓, Poquet N. ↑,
82', Gete A. ↓, Granero B. ↑,
90+6', Unzueta I. 🟨,

Preview

Lugo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Avilés's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Avilés may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lugo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lugo is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Avilés - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 29.93%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Lugo	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.08.25	UD Ourense - Lugo	0:1 ✺
13.08.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	3:2 ✺
09.08.25	Lugo - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Sarriana - Lugo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWT
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Marino de Luanco - Real Avilés	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Mosconia - Real Avilés	3:0 ✺
06.08.25	Real Avilés - Leonesa	2:2 ✺
30.07.25	Real Avilés - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.08.23	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:0
24.07.19	Real Avilés - Lugo	0:5

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