Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 2

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitânia		Varzim

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.3	3.95
	1.82	3.66	4.33
	1.85	3.53	4.15	Watch
	1.83	3.46	4.27	Watch
	1.83	3.3	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.89)	3.45 ↑ (3.4)	4.13 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
50.6%

Draw
26.9%

Varzim
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

27%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

26.1%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Lusitânia - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cioletti G. (G) 12. Arsenio 85. Castro D. 29. Cerveira T. 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 21. Joao Vasco 6. Martins H. (C) 18. Pereira D. 11. Pereira M. 80. Renato Luis	51. Momo Mbaye (G) 22. Araujo C. 25. Chicao 80. Gomes A. 4. Henriques L. 19. Lopes A. 23. Monteiro J. 8. Oliveira R. 32. Pedrosa R. 9. Silva Nhaga I. 55. Ze Oliveira (C)
Substitutes
7. Avto 77. Goba Zakpa 28. Mesquita T. 5. Oliveira J. 10. Ribeiro S. 41. Ricardo M. (G) 3. Silverio 88. Teixeira M. 14. Valente M.	49. Costa P. (G) 13. Freitas R. 14. Graca H. 70. Lapas Montenegro L. M. 99. Moshood M. 3. Nuno P. 10. Pereira N. 2. Pimenta G. 85. Rebelo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Renato Luis ⚽,
26', Henriques L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Araujo C. ↓, Graca H. ↑,
60', Henriques L. ↓, Nuno P. ↑,
60', Monteiro J. ↓, Moshood M. ↑,
65', Arsenio ↓, Goba Zakpa ↑,
65', Joao Vasco ↓, Avto ↑,
65', Lopes A. ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
68', Castro D. ↓, Mesquita T. ↑,
72', Silva Nhaga I. ↓, Freitas R. ↑,
74', Pereira D. ↓, Valente M. ↑,
74', Renato Luis ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
82', Chicao 🟨,
87', Pereira M. 🟨,
90', 2 - 0, Pereira M. ⚽,
90+4', Gomes A. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lusitânia won 1.

Lusitânia is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Varzim is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Varzim could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lusitânia is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Lusitânia won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:11 (average 1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Lusitânia won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1 (average 0.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
07.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
26.01.25	Trofense - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
18.01.25	Lusitânia - Sanjoanense	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Vilaverdense - Lusitânia	0:2 ✺
04.01.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWWWW
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
08.02.25	Varzim - Amarante	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	São João de Ver - Varzim	4:1 ✺
18.01.25	Varzim - Trofense	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Sanjoanense - Varzim	1:2 ✺
04.01.25	Varzim - Vilaverdense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
30.11.24	Lusitânia - Varzim	0:0
16.08.24	Varzim - Lusitânia	1:0
07.04.24	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:3
11.02.24	Lusitânia - Varzim	1:0
08.12.23	Lusitânia - Varzim	1:1
25.08.23	Varzim - Lusitânia	3:0
Club Friendly
17.07.19	Varzim - Lusitânia	2:2

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