Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 1

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.92	2.98	3.95
	2	3.02	4.48
	1.88	3.19	4.47	Watch
	1.95	2.88	3.9
	1.99	3.13	4.06	Watch
	1.9	2.85	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.83)	3.01 ↓ (3.15)	4.19 ↓ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
47.4%

Draw
30.6%

Amarante
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

29.1%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

31.7%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Varzim, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Varzim - Amarante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 11. Benchi D. 19. Chamito 20. Derick 71. Filipe L. 77. Franca F. 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. (C) 99. Pedro Clemente 31. Talocha 44. Vila Cova M.	1. Duarte M. (G) 6. Almeida F. 4. Filipe J. 5. Innusah H. 3. Mendes F. 28. Pedro R. 2. Ribeiro O. 10. Rodrigues D. 99. Roger 23. Saint-Louis J. 22. Vivas S.
Substitutes
27. Boloto 4. Chicao 49. Costa P. (G) 35. Gunjo J. 2. Pimenta G. 45. Rebelo M. 17. Sequeira D. 70. Ze Manuel	88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 26. Nascimento D. 80. Ventura 8. Zangre A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', Franca F. 🟨,
35', Pedro R. 🟨,
38', Mendes F. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Chamito ⚽, Franca F. (A),
44', Derick 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Innusah H. ↓, Ventura ↑,
46', Ribeiro O. ↓, Zangre A. ↑,
46', Rodrigues D. ↓, Arome ↑,
46', Pedro Clemente ↓, Boloto ↑,
46', Benchi D. ↓, Chicao ↑,
61', Pedro R. ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Saint-Louis J. ⚽,
71', Franca F. ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,
71', Chamito ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
84', Roger ↓, Antunes Tiago C. J. ↑,
90+1', Ventura 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 1, Gunjo J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 2.

Recent performances by Varzim have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Amarante is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Varzim is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Varzim won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Marco 09 - Varzim	1:3 ✺
17.01.26	Varzim - Sanjoanense	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Varzim - Trofense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWLL
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Paredes - Amarante	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Amarante - Braga B	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	São João de Ver - Amarante	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Amarante - Fafe	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Varzim - Amarante	0:0
10.08.25	Amarante - Varzim	0:1
06.04.25	Amarante - Varzim	2:1
08.02.25	Varzim - Amarante	1:2
15.12.24	Amarante - Varzim	0:1
31.08.24	Varzim - Amarante	1:3
Taça de Portugal
24.09.17	Amarante - Varzim	1:0

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