Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Conde Dias Garcia (São João da Madeira)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sanjoanense		Varzim

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.1	2.58
	2.58	3.2	2.77
	2.89	3.15	2.41	Watch
	2.57	3.02	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.92)	3.12 ↓ (3.14)	2.59 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sanjoanense
34.9%

Draw
29.5%

Varzim
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

29.7%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

28.9%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanjoanense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanjoanense than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Sanjoanense - Varzim Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Varzim (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Varzim (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Monteiro J. (G) 84. Mosquera S. 2. Martins J. 3. Nando 24. Maio F. 6. Daniel J. (C) 16. Gomes V. 30. Talles Wander 25. Couto J. 19. Cezar F. 17. Lopes M.	49. Costa P. (G) 71. Filipe L. 3. Nuno P. 32. Rego R. 31. Talocha 20. Derick 77. Franca F. 8. Oliveira R. (C) 11. Benchi D. 9. Freitas R. 70. Ze Manuel
Substitutes
27. Calo A. 4. Cardoso R. 20. Correia L. 36. Duarte A. (G) 10. Kiko Felix 9. Mosquera Larrahondo S. D. 13. Pinheiro Edu 5. Santos R. 7. Tipote L.	27. Boloto 14. Graca H. 5. Milhazes A. 51. Momo Mbaye (G) 99. Pedro Clemente 2. Pimenta G. 45. Rebelo M. 17. Sequeira D. 7. Teixeira G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Pedro Clemente ⚽,
27', Rego R. 🟨,
45', 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Cezar F. ⚽, Lopes M. (A),
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
56', Gomes V. ↓, Kiko Felix ↑,
60', Benchi D. ↓, Sequeira D. ↑,
61', Ze Manuel ↓, Graca H. ↑,
62', Filipe L. ↓, Rebelo M. ↑,
67', 🟨,
68', 2 - 1, Talles Wander ⚽,
72', 2 - 2, Rebelo M. ⚽, Talocha (A),
74', 2 - 3, Franca F. ⚽, Sequeira D. (A),
75', 🟨,
75', 🟨,
77', Couto J. ↓, Tipote L. ↑,
84', Kiko Felix 🟥,
90+1', Oliveira R. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 3, Pinheiro Edu ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sanjoanense won 1.

Sanjoanense has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Varzim has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Sanjoanense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sanjoanense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
04.10.25	Trofense - Sanjoanense	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Sanjoanense - Paredes	2:2 ✺
24.09.25	Braga B - Sanjoanense	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Sanjoanense - Felgueiras	0:4 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Sanjoanense - São João de Ver	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTTLT
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.25	Trofense - Varzim	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Varzim - Fafe	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Varzim - Paredes	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Trofense - Varzim	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
12.01.25	Sanjoanense - Varzim	1:2
28.09.24	Varzim - Sanjoanense	3:0
21.01.24	Sanjoanense - Varzim	0:3
08.10.23	Varzim - Sanjoanense	2:1
27.01.23	Varzim - Sanjoanense	0:1
08.10.22	Sanjoanense - Varzim	0:0

Sanjoanense - Varzim: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide