Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Campo Conde de Sucena (Sintra) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Portugal	15:00	Canal 11


	1 Dezembro		Lusitano GC

	1	X	2
	3.55	2.72	2.15
	3.81	3.02	2.19
	3.21	2.78	2.51	Watch
	2.9	3	2.3
	3.9	2.85	2.17
	3	3.1	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (3.12)	2.91 ↓ (2.99)	2.27 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

1 Dezembro
27.3%

Draw
31.8%

Lusitano GC
40.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29%

30.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

29.3%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

The chances for Lusitano GC have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
47. Oliveira J. (G) 88. Abreu M. 13. Bernardo J. 24. Edu 44. Gomes C. 20. Harramiz S. 11. Isabelinha 33. Mane L. 23. Menezes L. (C) 17. Sapara A. 8. Vito	22. Martins D. (G) 10. Aguas M. 11. Almara F. 6. Andrade M. 8. Baptista T. 53. Carvalho E. 9. Lopes D. 37. Monteiro R. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C. (C) 77. Tipote L.
Substitutes
96. Arroyo J. 22. Dias G. 1. Duarte F. (G) 9. Ferreira C. 81. Ferreira D. 7. Ferreira D. 26. Freitas J. 85. Infante A. 2. Ramos P.	14. Cande B. 15. Da Mota Lucas Rosado F. X. 30. Davou S. 29. Isnaba G. 12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 5. Palancha T. 23. Pereira F. 21. Soares M. 17. Vicente G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', Bernardo J. ↓, Ramos P. ↑,
37', 1 - 0, Sapara A. (Penalty Awarded),
39', Baptista T. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Lopes D. ⚽, Baptista T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Andrade M. 🟨,
63', Aguas M. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
63', Tipote L. ↓, Davou S. ↑,
68', Carvalho E. 🟨,
73', Menezes L. ↓, Infante A. ↑,
73', Sapara A. ↓, Ferreira D. ↑,
90', Baptista T. ↓, Cande B. ↑,
90', Lopes D. ↓, Isnaba G. ↑,
90+1', Harramiz S. ↓, Dias G. ↑,

Preview

1 Dezembro has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Lusitano GC has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 1 Dezembro won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, 1 Dezembro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	1:5 ✺
15.02.26	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	1 Dezembro - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTLT
- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	Lusitano GC - Amora	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Amora - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1
01.11.25	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	2:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
04.06.23	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	1:1
14.05.23	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	3:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
08.03.20	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	0:1

1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC