Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 10

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Estrela (Evora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitano GC		Atlético CP

	1	X	2
	2.28	2.98	2.98
	2.4	3.07	3.13
	2.43	2.95	3.14	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3
	2.32	2.91	3.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.43)	2.94 ↑ (2.9)	3.06 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
39%

Draw
31.1%

Atlético CP
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

32.1%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

31%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Atlético CP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Lusitano GC - Atlético CP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 53. Carvalho E. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C. 37. Monteiro R. 10. Aguas M. 14. Cande B. 8. Baptista T. 11. Almara F. 77. Tipote L. 9. Lopes D.	1. Ferreira F. (G) 31. Paulinho 23. Almeida B. 4. Henriques D. 7. Barandas M. 17. Silva D. 18. Dias R. 8. Sousa C. 5. Durand V. 38. Santana C. 49. Suker H.
Substitutes
6. Andrade M. 30. Davou S. 29. Isnaba G. 15. Lima Z. 22. Martins D. (G) 5. Palancha T. 23. Pereira F. 21. Soares M. 17. Vicente G.	79. Arezes D. 11. Delcio 99. Dias R. (G) 21. Garcia O. 3. Gonzalez F. 25. Hernandez S. 9. Nicolas Souza 19. Okoli F. 77. Santos R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Marcelo Valverde ↓, Martins D. ↑,
20', 🟨,
28', Cande B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Paulinho ↓, Okoli F. ↑,
49', Dias R. 🟨,
64', Aguas M. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
64', Almara F. ↓, Davou S. ↑,
64', Dias R. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
71', Baptista T. 🟨,
76', 0 - 1, Santana C. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Silva D. ↓, Nicolas Souza ↑,
82', Baptista T. ↓, Lima Z. ↑,
82', Tipote L. ↓, Isnaba G. ↑,
85', Barandas M. ↓, Santos R. ↑,
86', Santana C. ↓, Arezes D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 0.

Lusitano GC is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Atlético CP has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lusitano GC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
25.04.26	Amora - Lusitano GC	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Lusitano GC - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Caldas - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWTW
- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
25.04.26	Atlético CP - 1 Dezembro	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Atlético CP - Caldas	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Atlético CP - Amora	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.26	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	3:0
13.12.25	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	1:0
13.09.25	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
28.05.23	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	5:1
07.05.23	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.04.23	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	1:0
11.12.22	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	2:2

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