Match Info

A-League - Round 23

Date: 2 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 3
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Macarthur FC		Newcastle Jets

	1	X	2
	2.05	4.1	2.85	Watch
	2.18	3.95	2.78	Watch
	2.16	4.11	3.06
	2.21	4.18	2.82	Watch
	2.1	3.75	2.8
	2.25	4.23	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.44)	4.05 ↓ (4.17)	2.86 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Macarthur FC
43.7%

Draw
23.3%

Newcastle Jets
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

22.8%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

23.6%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Macarthur FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Newcastle Jets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle Jets might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Macarthur FC - Newcastle Jets Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Macarthur will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Newcastle will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Macarthur: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Newcastle (2.21) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Macarthur (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Macarthur (votes: 1 - 25%). Newcastle (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robinson A. (G) 7. Grzan S. 22. Rose L. 3. Da Silva D. 6. Uskok T. 25. Talbot C. 9. Ikonomidis C. 26. Brattan L. (C) 10. Caceres A. 13. Duran R. 15. Duke M.	1. Delianov J. (G) 39. Aquilina T. 5. Shaughnessy J. 33. Natta M. 23. Wilmering D. 17. Grozos K. (C) 14. Burgess M. 43. Bertoncello X. 8. Bayliss L. 18. Mizunuma K. 11. Gibson B.
Substitutes
24. Bosnjak D. 12. Kurto F. (G) 11. Oliveira B. 17. Randazzo O. 28. Sawyer H. 18. Scott W. 8. Vickery L.	7. Adams E. 10. Clough Z. 28. Dobson W. 20. Nassiep A. (G) 24. Nunes A. 9. Rose L. 41. Scicluna L.
Coaches
Sterjovski M.	Milligan M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
10', 1 - 0, Duke M. ⚽, Duran R. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Bertoncello X. ⚽, Grozos K. (A),
23', 2 - 1, Duran R. ⚽, Duke M. (A),
45+5', 2 - 2, Bertoncello X. ⚽, Wilmering D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Shaughnessy J. ↓, Dobson W. ↑,
46', Mizunuma K. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
64', Bertoncello X. ↓, Clough Z. ↑,
66', Ikonomidis C. ↓, Bosnjak D. ↑,
66', Duran R. ↓, Vickery L. ↑,
68', 3 - 2, Duke M. ⚽, Talbot C. (A),
74', Duke M. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
77', Gibson B. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
80', Aquilina T. ↓, Nunes A. ↑,
90', Rose L. 🟨,
90+3', Caceres A. ↓, Oliveira B. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 2.

Macarthur has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Newcastle is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:32. (average 1.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Macarthur won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.4:1.6).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Newcastle Jets: 12.08% Macarthur FC: 8.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Macarthur FC - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.99%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
20.03.26	Auckland FC - Macarthur FC	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	4:1 ✺
04.03.26	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Macarthur FC - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:4 ✺
22.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLLL
- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
22.03.26	Sydney - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
22.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	1:0
26.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	4:5
Australian Cup
24.08.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	3:0
Australian A-League
28.03.25	Macarthur FC - Newcastle Jets	3:3
12.01.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	1:3
25.10.24	Macarthur FC - Newcastle Jets	1:2
Australian Cup
25.08.24	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	3:4

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