Match Info

A-League - Round 21

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Evans S. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Melbourne Victory		Macarthur FC

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.8	3.4	Watch
	2.02	3.7	3.25
	2.05	3.95	3.51
	1.94	4.02	3.54	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.3
	1.99	3.9	3.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.84)	3.83 ↑ (3.7)	3.45 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
47.7%

Draw
24.8%

Macarthur FC
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

25%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

24%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Macarthur FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Macarthur will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick (C) 18. Lino F. 10. Genreau D. 8. Valadon J. 23. Jelacic K. 64. Mata J. 17. Velupillay N. 44. Nduka C.	12. Kurto F. (G) 24. Bosnjak D. 3. Da Silva D. 25. Talbot C. 13. Duran R. 8. Vickery L. 18. Scott W. 22. Rose L. 26. Brattan L. (C) 10. Caceres A. 15. Duke M.
Substitutes
11. Clarismario 25. Duncan J. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 4. Jackson L. 34. Stella X. 3. Traore A. 9. Vergos N.	23. Deli F. 9. Ikonomidis C. 5. Jurman M. 30. Lakkis J. (G) 32. McKay W. 35. Oliveira H. 28. Sawyer H.
Coaches
Diles A.	Sterjovski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Talbot C. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Da Silva D. (Own goal),
19', Rose L. 🟨,
25', 2 - 0, Genreau D. ⚽, Nduka C. (A),
36', Roderick 🟨,
37', 2 - 1, Vickery L. ⚽, Duran R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Scott W. 🟨,
63', 3 - 1, Esposito S. ⚽, Mata J. (A),
64', Duran R. ↓, Ikonomidis C. ↑,
64', Duke M. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
65', Velupillay N. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
65', Jelacic K. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
66', 4 - 1, Nduka C. ⚽,
73', Valadon J. 🟨,
74', Vickery L. ↓, Oliveira H. ↑,
74', Brattan L. ↓, Deli F. ↑,
74', Scott W. ↓, McKay W. ↑,
79', Mata J. ↓, Stella X. ↑,
79', Lino F. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
88', Genreau D. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 2.

Melbourne Victory is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Macarthur is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Melbourne Victory is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: D'Arrigo L. (Leg Injury) Hamill B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Macarthur: Ji Dong-Won (Ankle Injury) Oliveira B. (Injury) Politidis H. (Inactive) Robinson A. (Red Card) Uskok T. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Melbourne Victory: Roderick (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne Victory: 13.33% Macarthur FC: 8.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Macarthur FC - the odds 3.73 are the expected chance of winning is 24.76%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
07.03.26	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	2:2 ✺
27.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTWTW
- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
04.03.26	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Macarthur FC - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:4 ✺
22.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
19.02.26	Macarthur FC - Bangkok United	2:2 ✺
12.02.26	Bangkok United - Macarthur FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
05.12.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	0:0
25.04.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	1:2
03.11.24	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	2:1
Australian Cup
29.09.24	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	0:1
Australian A-League
10.02.24	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	0:1
24.11.23	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	1:1
23.04.23	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	2:1

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