Match Info

A-League - Round 20

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football, Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3, Sky Sport 4


	Macarthur FC		Central Coast Mariners

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.75	4.75	Watch
	1.68	4	4.4
	1.58	4.25	4.95
	1.6	4.5	5.25
	1.57	4.63	5.15	Watch
	1.57	4.33	4.6
	1.64	4.87	4.64	Watch
	1.7	4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.7)	4.42 ↑ (3.7)	4.76 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Macarthur FC
58.7%

Draw
21.4%

Central Coast Mariners
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

24.8%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

27.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Macarthur FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Central Coast Mariners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Central Coast Mariners than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	17.4%	26.1%

Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Macarthur will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Central Coast will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 17.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Macarthur: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Macarthur (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Central Coast (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Macarthur (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Macarthur FC will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Macarthur (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Central Coast (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robinson A. (G) 25. Talbot C. 3. Da Silva D. 6. Uskok T. 18. Scott W. 10. Caceres A. (C) 26. Brattan L. 8. Vickery L. 24. Bosnjak D. 13. Duran R. 15. Duke M.	30. Redmayne A. (C) 43. Nasso J. 26. Tapp B. 3. Paull N. 5. Mauragis L. 37. Brandtman B. 72. Auglah A. 48. Donnell C. 8. McCalmont A. 17. Taniguchi K. 23. Lavale O.
Substitutes
29. Helweh Z. 12. Kurto F. (G) 32. McKay W. 14. Popovic K. 17. Randazzo O. 22. Rose L. 28. Sawyer H.	18. Blair N. 6. Eames H. 24. Herrington D. 11. James Ngor S. 20. Kennedy W. 40. Peraic-Cullen D. (G) 16. Steele H.
Coaches
Sterjovski M.	Moon W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Vickery L. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, McCalmont A. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', Auglah A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', Caceres A. 🟨,
55', Duran R. ↓, Popovic K. ↑,
55', Da Silva D. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
58', Paull N. 🟨,
61', Auglah A. ↓, James Ngor S. ↑,
61', Taniguchi K. ↓, Eames H. ↑,
61', Lavale O. ↓, Blair N. ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Brandtman B. ⚽,
67', 1 - 2, Caceres A. ⚽, Duke M. (A),
68', Uskok T. 🟥,
73', Duke M. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
77', Robinson A. 🟥,
79', Vickery L. ↓, Kurto F. ↑,
80', Brattan L. ↓, Randazzo O. ↑,
80', Brandtman B. ↓, Steele H. ↑,
84', 1 - 3, Blair N. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 0.

Recent form of Macarthur has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Central Coast is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Macarthur may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Macarthur is seen as the favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Macarthur won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.9:1.9).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Macarthur FC: 8.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
28.02.26	Macarthur FC - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:4 ✺
22.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
19.02.26	Macarthur FC - Bangkok United	2:2 ✺
12.02.26	Bangkok United - Macarthur FC	2:0 ✺
Australian A-League
06.02.26	Macarthur FC - Perth Glory	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLTLT
- Central Coast Mariners
Australian A-League
28.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Brisbane Roar - Central Coast Mariners	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
23.01.26	Auckland FC - Central Coast Mariners	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.1 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
17.01.26	Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC	1:1
20.04.25	Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC	2:2
23.12.24	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:1
10.03.24	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	0:3
AFC Cup
22.02.24	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	2:3 ET
Australian A-League
29.10.23	Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC	1:2
11.03.23	Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC	4:1

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