Match Info

Liga Alef North - Round 13

Date: 2 January 2026, Friday


	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth		Hapoel Karmiel

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.25	3.35
	2.01	3.36	3.36	Watch
	1.96	3.34	3.42
	2	3.14	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.7)	3.27 ↓ (3.7)	3.38 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
45.6%

Draw
27.7%

Hapoel Karmiel
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

24.6%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

24.2%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maccabi Ahi Nazareth's form might have worsened.

Hapoel Karmiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hapoel Karmiel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hapoel Karmiel than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hapoel Karmiel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Hapoel Karmiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Suleiman K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', 2 - 0, Abu Ahmed I. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Leumit League and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Alef North).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Maccabi Nazareth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Maccabi Nazareth is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Hapoel Karmiel	5	2	3	0	8:3	5	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Israeli State Cup
27.12.25	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Maccabi Haifa	1:8 ✺
Israeli Liga Alef North
19.12.25	Tzeirey Tamra - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	1:5 ✺
12.12.25	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Ironi Nesher	0:1 ✺
04.12.25	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	1:3 ✺
28.11.25	Tzeirey Um El Fahem - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWLWW
- Hapoel Karmiel
Israeli State Cup
25.12.25	Hapoel Petah Tikva - Hapoel Karmiel	2:1 ✺
Israeli Liga Alef North
19.12.25	Hapoel Karmiel - Tzeirey Um El Fahem	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad - Hapoel Karmiel	2:1 ✺
05.12.25	Hapoel Karmiel - Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmad	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Hapoel Ironi Baqa al-Gharbiyye - Hapoel Karmiel	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLWW

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