Match Info

Date: 22 October 2020, Thursday


	Maccabi Tel Aviv		Qarabağ Agdam

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	3.4
	2.4	2.95	3.4
	2.35	3.1	3.2
	2.31	2.95	3.35
	2.32	3.15	3.5
	2.3	3.1	3.3
	2.4	3.25	3.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.89)	3.07 ↓ (3.44)	3.35 ↓ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maccabi Tel Aviv
40.6%

Draw
31%

Qarabağ Agdam
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

27.5%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

18.5%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maccabi Tel Aviv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maccabi Tel Aviv's form might have worsened.

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Qarabağ Agdam's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maccabi Tel Aviv than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maccabi Tel Aviv that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.7%	18.6%	35.7%

Maccabi Tel Aviv - Qarabağ Agdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Maccabi Tel Aviv will win (votes: 32 - 45.7%). Qarabağ will win (votes: 25 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 18.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Maccabi Tel Aviv: 34% – 57.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Maccabi Tel Aviv has a chance of round of 32 (49%), has a small chance of round of 16 (15%), has a very small chance of qtrs (5%), has a very small chance of semis (1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Qarabağ has a chance of round of 32 (38%), has a small chance of round of 16 (11%), has a very small chance of qtrs (3%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Maccabi Tel Aviv is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Qarabağ is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Qarabağ could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Maccabi Tel Aviv will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maccabi Tel Aviv
UEFA Champions League
30.09.20	Red Bull Salzburg - Maccabi Tel Aviv	3:1 ✺
22.09.20	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Red Bull Salzburg	1:2 ✺
16.09.20	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Dinamo Brest	1:0 ✺
Israeli Ligat haAl
12.09.20	Bnei Yehuda - Maccabi Tel Aviv	2:2 ✺
30.08.20	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Maccabi Petah Tikva	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLWTL
- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.10.20	Qarabağ Agdam - Gabala	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.10.20	Legia Warsaw - Qarabağ Agdam	0:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
25.09.20	Sumgayit - Qarabağ Agdam	2:2 ✺
20.09.20	Qarabağ Agdam - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.20	Qarabağ Agdam - Molde	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTLL

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