Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A - Round 17

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Machico (Machico)


	Machico		Chaves B

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	2.92
	2.13	3.09	2.92
	2.23	3.21	3.07	Watch
	2.15	3	3
	2.19	3.16	3.05
	2.1	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.65)	3.13 ↑ (3.1)	3.01 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machico
41.4%

Draw
28.8%

Chaves B
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

28.1%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

26.7%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machico has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Machico's performance.

Chaves B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chaves B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machico than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Machico that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves B than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chaves B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Machico - Chaves B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Machico has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chaves B is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Machico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Machico won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Chaves B	4	3	0	1	5:4	1	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Machico
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
31.01.26	Machico - Celoricense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Limianos - Machico	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Machico - Desportivo Monção	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Mirandela - Machico	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Ribeira Brava - Machico	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWLL
- Desportivo Chaves B
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
25.01.26	Chaves B - Brito	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	São Martinho - Chaves B	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Chaves B - Vianense	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Chaves B - Tirsense	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Bragança - Chaves B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
14.09.25	Chaves B - Machico	3:1

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