Match Info

PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL - ROUND 24

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday


	Machico		Guarda Desportiva

	1	X	2
	1.46	4	5.75
	1.42	3.9	5.5
	1.38	4.46	7.08
	1.4	4.45	6.8
	1.4	4.4	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.71)	4.24 ↑ (3.58)	6.31 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machico
64.2%

Draw
21.4%

Guarda Desportiva
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

25.4%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

21%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machico has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Machico's performance.

Guarda Desportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guarda Desportiva might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machico than the current prediction. (-20.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Machico that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarda Desportiva than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guarda Desportiva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 11 and 14).

Recent matches Machico is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Guarda Desportiva is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Machico is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Machico won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Machico
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
19.03.23	Lusitânia - Machico	2:0 ✺
12.03.23	Machico - Gondomar	2:0 ✺
05.03.23	Salgueiros 08 - Machico	2:0 ✺
26.02.23	Machico - Rebordosa	2:2 ✺
19.02.23	Alpendorada - Machico	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWLTT
- Guarda Desportiva
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
19.03.23	Guarda Desportiva - Leça	1:5 ✺
12.03.23	Castro Daire - Guarda Desportiva	4:0 ✺
05.03.23	Guarda Desportiva - Beira-Mar	1:2 ✺
26.02.23	Marítimo B - Guarda Desportiva	3:0 ✺
19.02.23	Resende - Guarda Desportiva	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
11.12.22	Guarda Desportiva - Machico	2:3

Machico - Guarda Desportiva: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide