Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.1	2.45
	2.84	3.28	2.55
	2.69	3.45	2.45	Watch
	2.75	3	2.38
	2.68	3.06	2.42
	2.63	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.61)	3.17 ↑ (2.9)	2.46 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
33.9%

Draw
28.9%

Belenenses
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

31.6%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

32.6%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Mafra - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 2. Camara M. 29. Rossi R. 66. Ferreira J. 39. Andrey 46. Sambu B. 90. Moreira R. 7. Matos R. 9. Niang M. 19. Iheanacho S.	99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 39. Pinto A. 66. Cesinha 27. Barros E. 20. Paulo D. 14. Afonso A. 21. Morgado T. (C) 11. Duda 9. Souza E. 17. Horta Leitao D.
Substitutes
10. Fati E. 8. Goncalves V. 1. Lemos F. (G) 85. Neves L. 30. Ninte M. 6. Pinto R. 27. Precatado J. 4. Queta M. 96. So S.	23. Bruninho 7. Eduardo W. 89. Gastao J. 15. Lucas J. 2. Machado J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 10. Sambu M. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.
Coaches
Shala O.	Zorro T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Horta Leitao D. ⚽, Duda (A),
9', 1 - 1, Iheanacho S. ⚽, Rossi R. (A),
18', Alves K. 🟨,
32', Morgado T. 🟨,
41', Sambu B. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Horta Leitao D. ⚽,
45+6', 1 - 3, Souza E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 🟨,
53', Bandarra M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
56', Moreira R. ↓, Ninte M. ↑,
61', Duda 🟨,
66', Andrey ↓, Neves L. ↑,
66', Niang M. ↓, So S. ↑,
67', Machado J. 🟨,
69', Duda ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
69', Souza E. ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
78', Matos R. ↓, Fati E. ↑,
84', Afonso A. ↓, Teixeira J. ↑,
84', Morgado T. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 4, Horta Leitao D. ⚽,

Preview

Mafra has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Belenenses is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Belenenses may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mafra has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Amarante - Mafra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Belenenses - Amarante	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
15.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Belenenses - Mafra	2:1
09.08.25	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
02.02.24	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1
26.08.23	Belenenses - Mafra	1:1

Mafra - Belenenses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide