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Current Win Probability
Mafra 31%
Draw 29.2%
Belenenses 39.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.5%
29.8%
33.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.1%
32.7%
30.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mafra's form might have worsened.
Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Belenenses's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+9.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mafra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-9.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Belenenses, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mafra - Belenenses Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 37. Ba A. 2. Camara M. 5. Cardoso G. 11. Leandro Alves 7. Matos R. 9. Niang M. 13. Raposo C. 46. Sambu B. . Silva J.
99. Oliveira G. (G) 14. Afonso A. 27. Barros E. 23. Bruninho 66. Cesinha 17. Horta Leitao D. 15. Lucas J. 58. Monteiro D. 21. Morgado T. 4. Nuno Tomas 9. Souza E.
Substitutes
17. Balde A. 20. Deme A. 66. Ferreira J. 18. Goba Zakpa 1. Lemos F. (G) 10. Lucas Gabriel 6. Maiga Y. 90. Moreira R. 8. Neves L. 42. Ngom A. 22. Xico
33. Chamito 95. Diego (G) 81. Ferreira D. 8. Herrera J. 20. Moninhas T. 11. Oliveira J. 39. Pinto A. 85. Varela D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Horta Leitao D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Souza E. ↓, Chamito ↑,
53', 0 - 2, Chamito ⚽, Barros E. (A),
59', Silva J. ↓, Ngom A. ↑,
59', Leandro Alves ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
60', Raposo C. ↓, Xico ↑,
68', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Moninhas T. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Niang M. ⚽,
74', Afonso A. ↓, Ferreira D. ↑,
78', Matos R. ↓, Neves L. ↑,
79', Ba A. ↓, Goba Zakpa ↑,
80', Barros E. ↓, Pinto A. ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Neves L. ⚽,
84', 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 0.
In recent outings, Mafra has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Belenenses is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Mafra has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:12 (averaging 1:2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Mafra against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:6 goals (averaging 1:2 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Mafra - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.48%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
Belenenses - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.73%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
Portugal
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Silva P. (G) 
Alves K. 
Ba A. 
Camara M. 
Niang M. 
Balde A. 
Deme A. 
Chamito 
Herrera J. 
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