Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 8

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		União de Santarém

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.25	3.65
	1.95	3.45	4.01
	1.91	3.5	3.85	Watch
	1.91	3.1	3.6
	1.86	3.3	3.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.95)	3.32 ↑ (3.13)	3.79 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
48.2%

Draw
27.6%

União de Santarém
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

29.3%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

28%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

União de Santarém has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Mafra - União de Santarém Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Santarém will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 39. Andrey 2. Camara M. 19. Iheanacho S. 20. Maiga Y. 7. Matos R. 90. Moreira R. 9. Niang M. 27. Precatado J. 46. Sambu B. (C)	22. Hidalgo N. (G) 16. Grilo M. (C) 3. Joao Ricardo 24. Medalli N. 6. Nanco I. 5. Rodeia M. 14. Simoes J. 7. Teixeira G. 29. Teixeira R. 20. Ventura B. 28. Vinhas D.
Substitutes
66. Ferreira J. 8. Goncalves V. 1. Lemos F. (G) 85. Neves L. 30. Ninte M. 6. Pinto R. 4. Queta M. 13. Raposo C. 96. So S.	84. Ayiah E. 13. Bura 90. Koume S. 10. Madeira T. 79. Marcante E. 58. Monteiro D. 78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 4. Pereira P. 33. Rodrigues M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Niang M. ⚽, Iheanacho S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, Teixeira G. ⚽, Joao Ricardo (A),
56', Precatado J. ↓, Raposo C. ↑,
63', Simoes J. ↓, Bura ↑,
63', Teixeira G. ↓, Ayiah E. ↑,
67', Matos R. ↓, Neves L. ↑,
69', Medalli N. ↓, Koume S. ↑,
78', Andrey ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
78', Niang M. ↓, So S. ↑,
84', Neves L. 🟨,
85', Monteiro D. ↓, Pereira P. ↑,
85', Rodeia M. ↓, Madeira T. ↑,
90+3', Koume S. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Iheanacho S. ⚽,
90+5', Iheanacho S. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 and 6)

Mafra is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Santarém has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Mafra is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mafra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
15.03.26	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT
- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
21.03.26	Varzim - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	União de Santarém - Amarante	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0
26.10.25	União de Santarém - Mafra	1:2
Taça de Portugal
02.10.22	União de Santarém - Mafra	0:1

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