Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo Cha das Padeiras (Santarem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	União de Santarém		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	2.98	2.98	2.28
	3.39	3	2.41
	3.2	3.06	2.32	Watch
	3	2.8	2.3
	3.23	2.82	2.29
	3.05	2.95	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.94)	2.94 ↑ (2.82)	2.34 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
29.3%

Draw
31.4%

Belenenses
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

32.2%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

31.1%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

União de Santarém - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 4. Pereira P. 28. Vinhas D. 14. Simoes J. 20. Ventura B. 16. Grilo M. (C) 6. Nanco I. 3. Joao Ricardo 17. Aguas G. 90. Koume S. 11. Goncalves E. F.	99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 66. Cesinha 39. Pinto A. 14. Afonso A. 17. Horta Leitao D. 20. Paulo D. 21. Morgado T. (C) 27. Barros E. 9. Souza E. 11. Duda
Substitutes
84. Ayiah E. 13. Bura 9. Eberth 22. Hidalgo N. (G) 15. Midoes R. 58. Monteiro D. 7. Teixeira G. 29. Teixeira R.	23. Bruninho 13. Cuca 7. Eduardo W. 89. Gastao J. 2. Machado J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 10. Sambu M. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Horta Leitao D. ⚽, Bandarra M. (A),
16', Afonso A. 🟨,
28', Souza E. (Penalty Awarded),
42', Morgado T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Koume S. ↓, Eberth ↑,
50', Vinhas D. 🟨,
60', Pereira P. ↓, Ayiah E. ↑,
60', Ventura B. ↓, Bura ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Souza E. ⚽,
69', Souza E. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
69', Bandarra M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
71', Simoes J. ↓, Teixeira G. ↑,
72', Pinto A. 🟨,
78', Duda ↓, Cuca ↑,
78', Afonso A. ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
90', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Belenenses may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Santarém won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Santarém won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	União de Santarém - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Trofense - União de Santarém	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 WLLWW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.26	Belenenses - Amarante	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
15.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1
02.11.25	Belenenses - União de Santarém	0:2
12.01.25	Belenenses - União de Santarém	2:0
29.09.24	União de Santarém - Belenenses	1:2

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