Match Info

National League South - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Maidenhead United		Tonbridge Angels

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.50	3.25
	1.84	3.45	3.50
	2.00	3.66	3.51
	2.11	3.54	3.19	Watch
	1.95	3.60	3.45
	1.98	3.83	3.31
	2.02	3.45	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2)	3.58 ↓ (3.66)	3.34 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maidenhead United
46.7%

Draw
25.7%

Tonbridge Angels
27.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.5%

25.4%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

24.4%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maidenhead United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Tonbridge Angels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maidenhead United than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Maidenhead United - Tonbridge Angels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
84', 0 - 1, Baker F. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 11th and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maidenhead won 2.

In recent outings, Maidenhead has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tonbridge is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Maidenhead could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Maidenhead is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Maidenhead has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:5 (averaging 1:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Maidenhead against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.3:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Tonbridge	14	7	3	4	26:14	12	24
18	Maidenhead	14	3	5	6	14:19	-5	14

Outrights of English National League South for now

Tonbridge: 3.56% Maidenhead: 0.75%

Last Results with these Odds

Maidenhead United - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.46%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Tonbridge Angels - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 28.16%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maidenhead United
English National League South
26.09.26	Chesham United - Maidenhead United	0:4 ✺
12.09.26	Maidenhead United - Billericay Town	2:2 ✺
08.09.26	Maidenhead United - Torquay United	0:4 ✺
05.09.26	Dover Athletic - Maidenhead United	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Maidenhead United - Totton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTLWT
- Tonbridge Angels
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Tonbridge Angels - Torquay United	0:1 ✺
English National League South
26.09.26	Tonbridge Angels - Ebbsfleet United	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:1 ✺
08.09.26	Tonbridge Angels - Maidstone United	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Farnborough - Tonbridge Angels	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
10.02.26	Tonbridge Angels - Maidenhead United	0:1
21.10.25	Maidenhead United - Tonbridge Angels	1:1
12.04.14	Maidenhead United - Tonbridge Angels	0:0
04.03.14	Tonbridge Angels - Maidenhead United	2:4
12.01.13	Tonbridge Angels - Maidenhead United	2:1
18.08.12	Maidenhead United - Tonbridge Angels	N/A

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