Match Info

National League South - Round 9

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Focus Community Arena (Hemel Hempstead)


	Hemel Hempstead Town		Tonbridge Angels

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.30	2.70
	2.12	3.15	3.00
	2.32	3.68	2.80
	2.2	3.61	2.93	Watch
	2.25	3.60	2.75
	2.24	3.42	2.77
	2.20	3.25	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.29)	3.43 ↓ (3.44)	2.82 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hemel Hempstead Town
41.1%

Draw
26.6%

Tonbridge Angels
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

26.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Tonbridge Angels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', (Penalty Awarded),
21', 0 - 1, Korboa R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', 1 - 1, Panayiotou H. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:13. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hemel Hempstead won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.8:0.7).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3% Tonbridge: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Tonbridge	10	4	2	4	19:11	8	14
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.59%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Tonbridge Angels - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.39%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
08.09.26	Ebbsfleet United - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnham Town	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Folkestone Invicta - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Weston-super-Mare	1:3 ✺
22.08.26	Salisbury - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTLLW
- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
08.09.26	Tonbridge Angels - Maidstone United	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Farnborough - Tonbridge Angels	0:4 ✺
31.08.26	Tonbridge Angels - Walton & Hersham	5:1 ✺
29.08.26	Billericay Town - Tonbridge Angels	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Tonbridge Angels - Truro City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
28.02.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:0
29.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:3
01.03.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	2:0
23.11.24	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:0
13.01.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	2:0
07.10.23	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	3:3
07.04.23	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:1

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