Match Info

Africa Cup of Nations - Round 1

Date: 22 December 2025, Monday

Location: Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca)

Referee: Artan O. A. (Som)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	AfroSport TV Africa, Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ CAN, DStv Now, New World Sport 6, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport PSL, ZAP
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	TPA 1, TPA
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Benin	Benin TV
Brazil	Band Play
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Burkina-faso	RTB
Cameroon	Canal 2 International, CRTV Sports, Equinoxe
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Colombia	Win play
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Equatorial-guinea	TVGE Internacional
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Gabon	Groupe Gabon Televisions
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	ERT Sports 1, ERT Sports 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
India	FanCode, FanCode
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	Sportitalia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv, KBC Channel 1
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mali	ORTM
Mexico	Claro Sports
Morocco	Arryadia, Arryadia TNT, SNRT Live
Mozambique	TVM 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
Norway	VG+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Republic-of-the-congo	Tele Congo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SABC 2, SABC 3, SABC Plus, SABC Sport, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport PSL
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Exxen
United-kingdom	4Seven, Channel 4
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Zambia	ZNBC 1


	Mali		Zambia

	1	X	2
	1.65	3	5.75	Watch
	1.72	3.45	5.6	Watch
	1.6	3.65	6.46
	1.68	3.47	6.14	Watch
	1.67	3.25	5.5
	1.74	3.49	6.24	Watch
	1.66	3.4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.52)	3.39 ↓ (3.79)	5.96 ↓ (6.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mali
56.3%

Draw
27.8%

Zambia
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

24.7%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mali's form might have worsened.

Zambia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	40%	13.3%

Mali - Zambia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Mali will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Zambia will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mali: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Mali (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Zambia (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Zambia (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mali (1.14) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Mali (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Mali (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mali (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Mali (votes: 6 - 50%). Zambia (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Diarra D. (G) Young Africans 15. Fofana M. New England Revolution 5. Diaby A. Grasshoppers 3. Dante A. Arouca 7. Nene D. Fenerbahce 26. Coulibaly W. Sassuolo 23. Dieng A. (C) Al Ahly 20. Sangare M. Lens 17. Sinayoko L. Auxerre 19. Doumbia K. Brest 9. Toure E. B. Besiktas	1. Mwanza W. (G) Power Dynamos 2. Banda M. Nkana 21. Chanda D. Power Dynamos 6. Sakala B. Bohemians 1905 8. Musonda L. Magdeburg 5. Chaiwa M. Hibernian 9. Banda L. Lecce 25. Tembo O. Power Dynamos 17. Kangwa K. H. Beer Sheva 20. Daka P. Leicester 10. Sakala F. (C) Al Fayha
Substitutes
12. Camara M. Al-Sadd 14. Camara M. Laval 25. Camara O. Angers 11. Coulibaly L. Lecce 27. Diakite G. Lausanne 21. Diarra G. Feyenoord 1. Diawara I. (G) Sirius 13. Doucoure F. Le Havre 8. Doumbia M. Al Ittihad 18. Doumbia M. Watford 28. Gassama N. Baltika 4. Haidara A. RB Leipzig 22. Samassa M. (G) Laval 24. Sissoko I. Bochum 2. Traore H. Paris FC	3. Chisala O. Al-Merreikh 12. Chisala W. Zanaco 14. Chongo K. Zesco 22. Hamansenya D. Leganes 15. Kalusa G. Muza Fc 7. Lahne J. A. Lustenau 26. Liteta J. Cagliari 27. Mandanji E. Zanaco 16. Mulenga L. (G) Power Dynamos 4. Musonda F. Bahrain SC 19. Musonda K. Hapoel Ramat Gan 18. Mwansa F. (G) Zanaco 23. Phiri P. Zesco 11. Sabobo J. H. Beer Sheva 28. Simukonda D. Zesco
Coaches
Saintfiet T.	Sichone M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Toure E. B. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 1 - 0, Sinayoko L. ⚽,
65', Dieng A. 🟨,
67', Banda L. ↓, Sabobo J. ↑,
67', Chaiwa M. ↓, Simukonda D. ↑,
69', Simukonda D. 🟨,
76', Toure E. B. ↓, Diarra G. ↑,
76', Nene D. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
78', Sakala F. ↓, Musonda K. ↑,
86', Doumbia K. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Daka P. ⚽, Banda M. (A),

Preview

Mali may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mali is the team to beat.

There will not play in Mali: Traore H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mali: Niakate S. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mali won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mali
Friendly
18.11.25	Jordan - Mali	0:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
12.10.25	Mali - Madagascar	4:1 ✺
08.10.25	Chad - Mali	0:2 ✺
08.09.25	Ghana - Mali	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Mali - Comoros	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWWLW
- Zambia
Friendly
16.12.25	D.R. Congo - Zambia	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	South Africa - Zambia	3:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
12.10.25	Zambia - Niger	0:1 ✺
08.10.25	Tanzania - Zambia	0:1 ✺
08.09.25	Zambia - Morocco	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
26.09.22	Mali - Zambia	Canceled
23.09.22	Mali - Zambia	1:0
African Nations Championship
27.01.16	Zambia - Mali	0:0

Mali - Zambia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide