Match Info

Turkish Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu (Manisa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Turkey	A Spor


	Manisa FK		Muğlaspor

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3
	2.05	3.7	3
	4.10	3.55	1.80	Watch
	2.39	3.44	2.7	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.07)	3.52 ↑ (3.45)	2.53 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manisa FK
35.3%

Draw
27.1%

Muğlaspor
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

26.2%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

27.6%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manisa FK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Manisa FK's form might have worsened.

Muğlaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Muğlaspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manisa FK than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Manisa FK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Muğlaspor than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Muğlaspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Manisa FK - Muğlaspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Manisa will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Muğlaspor will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Muğlaspor: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Muğlaspor (2.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Muğlaspor will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Manisa (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Muğlaspor (votes: 10 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Yigit M. ⚽, Erkasap M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Fedai C. ⚽, Sahinturk S. (A),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manisa FK
Turkish First League
25.10.25	Sarıyer - Manisa FK	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Manisa FK - Erzurumspor	1:1 ✺
03.10.25	Çorum - Manisa FK	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Manisa FK - Bodrumspor	0:4 ✺
24.09.25	Bandırmaspor - Manisa FK	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TTLLW
- Muğlaspor
Turkish Second League White Group
25.10.25	Adana 1954 - Muğlaspor	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Muğlaspor - 24 Erzincanspor	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Iskenderunspor - Muğlaspor	2:1 ✺
06.10.25	Muğlaspor - Erbaaspor	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	İnegölspor - Muğlaspor	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLWW

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