Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 8

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Maranhão		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.6
	2.58	2.82	2.78	Watch
	2.58	2.87	2.79
	2.75	2.67	2.96
	2.6	2.63	2.75
	2.55	2.8	2.75	Watch
	2.52	2.92	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.52)	2.79 ↓ (2.92)	2.78 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maranhão
34.9%

Draw
32.5%

Caxias
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

31.4%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

32.2%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maranhão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Maranhão - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jean (G) 16. Andre Radija (C) 29. Felipe Cruz 10. Jorge Rocha 4. Lucao 26. Luis Gustavo 25. Mauricio 15. Rosivan 14. Tiburcio 8. Vander 17. Will	1. Busatto G. (G) 7. Calyson 11. Gaspar 5. Grigor 3. Ianson 8. Matheus Nunes 4. Mauricio Ribeiro (C) 10. Ravanelli 6. Roberto 9. Salatiel 2. Vitor Gabriel
Substitutes
13. Almeida 2. Ball 3. Edson Fernando 7. Felipe Sales 9. Joelson 6. Lucas Santos 21. Pedro Lucas 11. Pimentinha 19. Rafael Teixeira 5. Railson 22. Rodrigo 12. Vitao	15. Breno Santos 18. Felipe Rangel 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 22. Joao Lucas 12. Leo Lang (G) 14. Mancha 21. Marcelo Freitas 20. Ronei 16. Victor Sa 17. Vitor Feijao 13. Windson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+3', Will 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Roberto ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
57', Vitor Gabriel 🟨,
63', Calyson ↓, Breno Santos ↑,
63', Ravanelli ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
63', Matheus Nunes ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
63', Jorge Rocha ↓, Pimentinha ↑,
63', Felipe Cruz ↓, Rafael Teixeira ↑,
70', 🟨,
76', Jhonatan Ribeiro 🟨,
90+2', Andre Radija 🟨,
90+6', Rosivan 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Maranhão has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Caxias is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Caxias - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.11%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Serie C
18.05.26	Confiança - Maranhão	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Maranhão - Botafogo PB	3:1 ✺
04.05.26	Floresta - Maranhão	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Maranhão - Ceará	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Maranhão - Volta Redonda	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LWWLW
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
17.05.26	Caxias - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Caxias	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Amazonas - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Caxias - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTTTW

Maranhão - Caxias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide