Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 6

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Barra Santa Catarina		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.28	2.88	3.1	Watch
	2.4	2.98	3.27
	2.36	2.91	3.31	Watch
	2.3	2.63	3.1
	2.28	2.81	3.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.53)	2.84 ↑ (2.58)	3.21 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barra Santa Catarina
39.3%

Draw
32.2%

Caxias
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

36%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

35.7%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barra Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Barra Santa Catarina - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ewerton (G) 6. Da Rocha 4. Everton Alemao 2. Fabio 10. Gabriel Silva 8. Henrique Freitas 3. Jean Pierre (C) 11. Marcelinho 7. Matheus Barbosa 5. Tete 9. Vinicius Popo	1. Busatto G. (G) 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 11. Gaspar 5. Grigor 10. Joao Lucas 8. Matheus Nunes 4. Mauricio Ribeiro 6. Roberto 9. Salatiel (C) 3. Windson
Coaches
Franco B.	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Matheus Nunes 🟨,
23', Matheus Barbosa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matheus Nunes ↓, Marcelo Freitas ↑,
46', Joao Lucas ↓, Ravanelli ↑,
47', Henrique Freitas 🟨,
58', Henrique Freitas ↓, Cleo Silva ↑,
60', Ravanelli 🟨,
65', Tete 🟨,
66', Calyson ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
66', Vinicius Popo ↓, Renan Bernabe ↑,
66', Gabriel Silva ↓, Warley Jr ↑,
75', Marcelinho ↓, Saymon ↑,
81', Fabio 🟨,
83', Gaspar ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
90+1', Salatiel ↓, Felipe Rangel ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 12).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Barra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Barra will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Barra FC: 2.7%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Serie C
04.05.26	Figueirense - Barra Santa Catarina	0:3 ✺
26.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Internacional de Limeira	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
18.04.26	Paysandu - Barra Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Maranhão	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTLTW
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Amazonas - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Caxias - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
27.04.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Volta Redonda - Caxias	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTWWL

Barra Santa Catarina - Caxias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide