Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 7

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Caxias		Paysandu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.87	3
	2.2	2.92	3.15	Watch
	2.2	3.08	3.48
	2.5	2.72	3.33	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.25
	2.14	2.93	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.14)	2.89 ↓ (2.92)	3.27 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
40.6%

Draw
31.5%

Paysandu
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

31.8%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

33.6%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caxias, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Caxias - Paysandu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busatto G. (G) 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 11. Gaspar 5. Grigor 3. Ianson 8. Matheus Nunes 4. Mauricio Ribeiro (C) 10. Ravanelli 6. Roberto 9. Salatiel	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 14. Bruno Bispo 15. Castro 2. Edilson 5. Henrico 9. Italo Carvalho 75. Kleiton Pego 77. Luciano Taboca 10. Marcinho (C) 39. Pedro Henrique 19. Thayllon
Substitutes
15. Breno Santos 18. Felipe Rangel 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 23. Joao Lucas 14. Mancha 12. Marcelo (G) 22. Marcelo Freitas 21. Matheus Anjos 16. Victor Sa 17. Vitor Feijao 20. Vitor Gabriel 13. Windson	31. Bonifazi F. 23. Brian Macapa 98. Juninho 99. Lucas Cardoso 6. Luccao 41. Marcao (G) 20. Matheus Capixaba 30. Thalyson 25. Tiago Indio
Coaches
Marcelo Cabo	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Kleiton Pego 🟨,
16', Thayllon 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Calyson ⚽,
41', Henrico 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Henrico ↓, Brian Macapa ↑,
52', Felipe Albuquerque ↓, Vitor Gabriel ↑,
58', Thayllon ↓, Thalyson ↑,
60', Grigor ↓, Marcelo Freitas ↑,
60', Ravanelli ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
60', Calyson ↓, Mancha ↑,
68', Pedro Henrique ↓, Juninho ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Salatiel ⚽,
78', Kleiton Pego 🟨,
83', Marcinho ↓, Tiago Indio ↑,
83', Italo Carvalho ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Caxias is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paysandu is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Caxias may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caxias is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Caxias	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Amazonas - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Caxias - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
27.04.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TTTWW
- Paysandu PA
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
09.05.26	Paysandu - Anápolis	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
06.05.26	Águia de Marabá - Paysandu	1:5 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Paysandu - Botafogo PB	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Trem - Paysandu	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 TWWWW

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