Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Ljudski vrt (Maribor)

Referee: Romanov V. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, SportKlub
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Montenegro	SportKlub
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub 1


	Maribor		Botev Plovdiv

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.52	4.5	5.75
	1.5	4.5	5.5
	1.52	4.3	5.9
	1.55	4.31	5.36	Watch
	1.44	4.2	5.5
	1.55	4.4	5.6	Watch
	1.53	4.3	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.72)	4.38 ↑ (3.94)	5.56 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maribor
61.9%

Draw
21.3%

Botev Plovdiv
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

23.9%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

23.1%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maribor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maribor's performance.

Botev Plovdiv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maribor than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maribor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botev Plovdiv than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.7%	19.5%	9.8%

Maribor - Botev Plovdiv Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Maribor will win (votes: 28 - 75.7%). Botev Plovdiv will win (votes: 3 - 8.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 16.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Maribor: 61.9% – 89.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jug A. (G) 5. Sirvys P. 50. Vidmar L. 25. Karic S. 22. Milec M. (C) 15. Repas J. 20. Repas Z. 11. Bourles R. 72. Ilicic J. 10. Barisic M. 17. Jakupovic A.	32. Igonen M. (G) 17. Minkov N. 5. Tamm J. 19. Conte A. 38. Balogiannis K. 15. Eto'o J. 20. Perera A. 7. Akere S. 10. Popov I. (C) 21. Iliev N. 11. Ujah A.
Substitutes
81. Bergsen M. (G) 13. Beugre E. 35. Bilac M. A. 8. Bozic M. 48. Dizdarevic A. 7. Feta B. 16. Grlic N. 55. Lorber M. 6. Mbondo B. 59. Pridgar S. (G) 12. Sikosek G. 2. Soudani El A.	1. Bernat C. (G) 27. Diabate S. 3. John E. 22. Kajzer D. (G) 28. Karabelyov Y. 88. Korosec A. 40. Nwachukwu C. 16. Remeikis M. 9. Sekulic M. 4. Ukaki E. 42. Videv I. 6. Yordanov A.
Coaches
Simundza A.	Kerkez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Repas J. ⚽, Ilicic J. (A),
32', Popov I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Iliev N. ↓, Nwachukwu C. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Nwachukwu C. ⚽, Popov I. (A),
56', Barisic M. ↓, Bozic M. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Ujah A. ⚽, Nwachukwu C. (A),
63', Bourles R. ↓, Sikosek G. ↑,
63', Repas Z. ↓, Beugre E. ↑,
70', Akere S. ↓, Ukaki E. ↑,
72', Ukaki E. 🟨,
74', Jakupovic A. ↓, Grlic N. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Beugre E. ⚽, Bozic M. (A),
83', Popov I. ↓, Diabate S. ↑,
87', Minkov N. 🟨,
87', Ujah A. ↓, Sekulic M. ↑,
88', Eto'o J. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Botev Plovdiv could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Maribor have a series of home games.

In this match Maribor is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Maribor won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Maribor
UEFA Europa League
11.07.24	Botev Plovdiv - Maribor	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.24	Maribor - CSKA 1948 Sofia	2:1 ✺
04.07.24	Maribor - Rapid Bucureşti	0:4 ✺
28.06.24	Maribor - Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2:2 ✺
25.06.24	Maribor - Budućnost Podgorica	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLTW
- Botev Plovdiv
UEFA Europa League
11.07.24	Botev Plovdiv - Maribor	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.06.24	Botev Plovdiv - Beroe Stara Zagora	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
27.05.24	Botev Plovdiv - Arda Kardzhali	0:1 ✺
23.05.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Botev Plovdiv	2:1 ✺
20.05.24	Slavia Sofia - Botev Plovdiv	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
11.07.24	Botev Plovdiv - Maribor	2:1

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