Match Info

National League North - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Marine		Spalding United

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.40	3.00
	2.10	3.30	2.87
	2.30	3.30	2.63
	2.21	3.70	3.01
	2.17	3.66	2.98	Watch
	2.14	3.65	2.95
	2.14	3.54	3.13
	2.10	3.45	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.87)	3.5 ↓ (3.59)	2.95 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marine
42.6%

Draw
26.2%

Spalding United
31.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.3%

25.9%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

24.9%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marine's performance.

Spalding United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Spalding United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marine than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marine that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spalding United than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spalding United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marine - Spalding United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', 1 - 0, Darby B. ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 16th and 6th in the Promotion - National League North Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

Marine has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Spalding shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Marine could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16:13	3	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15:15	0	16

Last Results with these Odds

Spalding United - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.81%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marine FC
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Marine - Warrington Town	2:0 ✺
English National League North
26.09.26	Merthyr Town - Marine	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Marine - Darlington	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	South Shields - Marine	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Marine - Worksop Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWLL
- Spalding United
English FA Cup
06.10.26	Spalding United - Bury Town	4:0 ✺
03.10.26	Bury Town - Spalding United	1:1 ✺
English National League North
26.09.26	Chorley - Spalding United	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Spalding United - Bedford Town	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Spennymoor Town - Spalding United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTLWW

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