Match Info
National League North - Round 10Date: 26 September 2026, SaturdayLocation: Penydarren Park (Merthyr)
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Merthyr Town |
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Marine |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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1.83 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
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1.87 |
3.40 |
3.40 |
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1.9 |
3.55 |
3.45 |
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1.9 |
3.86 |
3.64 |
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1.91 |
3.79 |
3.55 |
 Watch |
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1.86 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
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1.9 |
3.73 |
3.63 |
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1.89 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(1.98) |
3.67 ↑
(3.59) |
3.52 ↑
(3.23) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
- The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Merthyr Town
48.8% | Draw
25.1% | Marine
26.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)Marine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marine than the current prediction. (+0.6%)Merthyr Town - Marine Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 24', 0 - 1, Newell G. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 67', 1 - 1, Evans J. ⚽,
- 90', 1 - 2, Sinclair-Smith F. ⚽,
Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11th and 17th).Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.Marine could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match. Merthyr is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Merthyr has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 2:2 goals per game).Specifically in home fixtures for Merthyr against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:3 goals.
Outrights of English National League North for now
Merthyr Town: 1.46% Marine: 0.73%
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 13 |
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| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12:12 | 0 | 12 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Marine - the odds 3.23 are the expected chance of winning is 28.27%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
