Match Info

National League North - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Victory Park (Chorley)


	Chorley		Spalding United

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.50	2.15
	2.60	3.30	2.25
	2.75	3.35	2.18
	2.84	3.84	2.30
	2.7	3.78	2.3	Watch
	2.65	3.80	2.25
	2.73	3.64	2.34
	2.65	3.45	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.67)	3.58 ↑ (3.56)	2.26 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Chorley
33.8%

Draw
25.6%

Spalding United
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

25.7%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

25.2%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Spalding United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spalding United than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Chorley - Spalding United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', 1 - 0, Fielding S. ⚽,
82', 1 - 1, Sano Sani A. M. ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Calveley M. ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 16th and 4th in the Promotion ~ National League North PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

Chorley has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Spalding is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Chorley may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Spalding United: 2.8% Chorley: 1.12%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Spalding United	10	5	2	3	14:8	6	17
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16:17	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Chorley - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.26%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Warrington Rylands - Chorley	0:1 ✺
English National League North
12.09.26	King`s Lynn Town - Chorley	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Chorley - Darlington	5:2 ✺
05.09.26	Oxford City - Chorley	4:0 ✺
31.08.26	Chorley - Brackley Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWLT
- Spalding United
English National League North
12.09.26	Spalding United - Bedford Town	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Spennymoor Town - Spalding United	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Spalding United - Southport	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	South Shields - Spalding United	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Spalding United - Worksop Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWWTW

Upcoming Matches