Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 5

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Willie Davids (Maringá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Maringá		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.43	4.2	5.5
	1.41	4.15	6.1	Watch
	1.43	4.24	6.3
	1.44	4.44	6.53	Watch
	1.4	3.8	6
	1.4	4.15	6.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.47)	4.16 ↓ (4.21)	6.21 ↓ (6.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maringá
63.7%

Draw
21.7%

Itabaiana
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

22%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

20.6%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Maringá - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 32. Caua Tavares 7. Edison Negueba 2. Gabriel Souza 9. Giovane Gomez 10. Guilherme Pira (C) 18. Jhow Alecxander 5. Kelvi Gomes 23. Paulinho	1. Jefferson (G) 9. Everton Kanela 7. Fabricio Moura 14. Gustavo Cintra 5. Gustavo Crecci 3. Gustavo Fagundes 2. Isaque 8. Karl (C) 4. Ligger 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tito
Substitutes
20. Bruno Cheron 11. Danielzinho 14. Felipe Cardoso 17. Iago Santana 28. Lucas Bonifacio 15. Neira N. 35. Pedro Augusto 77. Rafinha 29. Rai Natalino 22. Rodrigues J. P. 1. Tony (G) 26. Wallace	20. Cleiton 22. Dione 11. Elimar 12. Geaze (G) 17. Leilson 19. Luan Silva 13. Lucao 23. Lucas Bessa 21. Pedro Igor . Ricardo Cerqueira 16. Tarcisio
Coaches
Moises Egert	Gilson Kleina

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Edison Negueba ⚽,
29', Gabriel Souza 🟨,
34', Karl 🟥,
36', 1 - 1, Everton Kanela ⚽,
45+3', Guilherme Pira 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Gabriel Souza ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
48', Guilherme Pira 🟨,
49', Fabricio Moura 🟨,
52', 2 - 1, Danielzinho ⚽,
59', Fabricio Moura ↓, Cleiton ↑,
59', Gustavo Cintra ↓, Pedro Igor ↑,
65', 2 - 2, Rodrigo Alves ⚽,
70', Giovane Gomez ↓, Bruno Cheron ↑,
72', Isaque ↓, Ricardo Cerqueira ↑,
79', Kelvi Gomes ↓, Lucas Bonifacio ↑,
84', Paulinho ↓, Rai Natalino ↑,
84', Caique Calito ↓, Rafinha ↑,
88', Gustavo Fagundes ↓, Lucao ↑,
88', Everton Kanela ↓, Tarcisio ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Bruno Cheron ⚽,
90+2', 4 - 2, Rafinha ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

In recent matches, Maringá has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Itabaiana's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Itabaiana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Maringá is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maringá won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Maringa FC: 6.99%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.26	Ituano - Maringá	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Maringá - Brusque	2:3 ✺
13.04.26	Figueirense - Maringá	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.03.26	Maringá - Goiás	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWWL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Piauí - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Itabaiana - Paysandu	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.04.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
19.04.26	Guarani - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Itabaiana - Ypiranga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
24.08.25	Itabaiana - Maringá	2:2

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