Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 4

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)


	Itabaiana		Paysandu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.4	2.8	2.8
	2.4	2.92	2.88
	2.46	3	2.87
	2.51	2.92	2.97	Watch
	2.45	2.75	2.8
	2.43	2.88	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.79)	2.88 ↑ (2.79)	2.86 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
37%

Draw
31.4%

Paysandu
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Itabaiana - Paysandu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson (G) 3. Betao (C) 9. Everton Kanela 7. Fabricio Moura 14. Gustavo Cintra 5. Gustavo Crecci 2. Isaque 8. Karl 4. Ligger 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tito	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 31. Bonifazi F. 14. Bruno Bispo 8. Caio Mello 15. Castro 2. Edilson 9. Italo Carvalho 75. Kleiton Pego 10. Marcinho (C) 39. Pedro Henrique 30. Thalyson
Substitutes
18. Balde R. 21. Caio Felipe 22. Dione 11. Elimar 12. Geaze (G) 13. Gustavo Fagundes 17. Leilson 19. Luan Silva 23. Lucas Bessa 20. Pedro Igor 15. Ricardo Cerqueira 16. Tarcisio	5. Henrico 1. Jean Drosny (G) 98. Juninho 94. Kaua Hinkel 99. Lucas Cardoso 77. Luciano Taboca 20. Matheus Capixaba 3. Quintana Y. 25. Tiago Indio
Coaches
Gilson Kleina	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
32', Betao ↓, Gustavo Fagundes ↑,
40', Everton Kanela 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Italo Carvalho ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Bruno Bispo ↓, Quintana Y. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Isaque ⚽,
61', Italo Carvalho ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
61', Bonifazi F. ↓, Luciano Taboca ↑,
65', Isaque ↓, Elimar ↑,
65', Karl ↓, Dione ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Caio Mello ⚽,
73', 1 - 3, Kleiton Pego ⚽,
75', 🟨,
77', Kleiton Pego ↓, Juninho ↑,
78', Tito 🟨,
82', 1 - 4, Juninho ⚽,
83', Caio Mello ↓, Henrico ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Itabaiana is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Paysandu's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Itabaiana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Paysandu has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.04.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
19.04.26	Guarani - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Itabaiana - Ypiranga	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.04.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
06.04.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTLLL
- Paysandu PA
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Paysandu - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
18.04.26	Paysandu - Barra Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
15.04.26	Paysandu - Independência	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
12.04.26	Paysandu - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
09.04.26	Nacional AM - Paysandu	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTWTL

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