Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 5

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday


	Piauí		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.9	3	2.35
	2.88	2.98	2.32	Watch
	3	3.09	2.42
	7.35	4.06	1.44	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.4
	2.86	3.02	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.08)	3.16 ↑ (3.04)	2.27 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Piauí
27.5%

Draw
30.3%

Itabaiana
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

29.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

26.3%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Piauí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Piauí's form might have worsened.

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Itabaiana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Piauí than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Piauí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Itabaiana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Piauí - Itabaiana Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Itabaiana (1.63) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Itabaiana (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Alan (G) 15. Andinho 17. Breno Alan 98. Gomes 44. Igor Rangel 66. Matheus Marques 8. Prado 87. Riquelme 16. Tchagnao F. 30. Wallace	1. Geaze (G) 5. Caio Felipe 10. Dione 2. Elimar 7. Leilson 9. Luan Silva 4. Lucao 23. Lucas Bessa 11. Pedro Igor 3. Ricardo Cerqueira 6. Tarcisio
Substitutes
31. Adsson 18. Diego Xavier 29. Eduardo Thuram 22. Erick 21. Gustavo China 88. Henrique Sousa Santos P. 27. Kauan Maranhao 28. Leandro Amorim 19. Marcelinho 7. Natan 84. Pedro Paulo (G) 6. Tenorio	17. Balde R. 22. Cleiton 13. Dudu 15. Mondaca B. 14. Vitinho 12. William (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Leilson ⚽,
20', Dione 🟨,
35', Lucas Bessa 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
75', Gomes 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Kauan Maranhao ⚽,
86', Balde R. 🟨,

Preview

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Piauí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Itabaiana has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Itabaiana - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 27.29%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Piauí EC
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.26	Piauí - Altos	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Fluminense Piaui - Piauí	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Vitória Salvador - Piauí	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
11.04.26	Piauí - Atlético Cearense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Fluminense Piaui - Piauí	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLTL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Itabaiana - Paysandu	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.04.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
19.04.26	Guarani - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Itabaiana - Ypiranga	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.04.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTLL

Piauí - Itabaiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide