Match Info

BRAZIL: Paranaense - Play Offs - Final

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, NSports, Sky+, Vivo Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Maringá		Operário Ferroviario

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.9	3.3
	2.22	3	3.45
	2.34	3.05	2.8
	2.11	3.13	3.29	Watch
	2.22	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.68)	3.02 ↑ (2.87)	3.26 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maringá
41.5%

Draw
30.4%

Operário Ferroviario
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

31.7%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

31.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maringá's performance.

Operário Ferroviario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Operário Ferroviario might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maringá that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Operário Ferroviario could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Maringá - Operário Ferroviario Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dheimison (G) 14. Buga 32. Caua 7. Edison Negueba 10. Leo Ceara 28. Lucas Bonifacio 99. Maranhao 9. Matheus Moraes 23. Max Miller 22. Raphinha 13. Tito	1. Elias (G) 93. Allan Godoi 29. Allano 10. Boschilia 2. Diogo Mateus 27. Gabriel Feliciano 55. Jacy (C) 30. Joseph 88. Neto Paraiba 7. Rodrigo Rodrigues 9. Vinicius Mingotti
Substitutes
20. Bruno Cheron 2. Cristovam 31. Fernando 6. Joao Felix 12. Joao Gabriel (G) 19. Julio Rodrigues 15. Parrudo 42. Rafael William (G) 11. Robertinho 36. Ronald Barcellos 4. Vilar 21. Vitinho	90. Cristiano 89. Daniel Amorim 77. Filipe Claudino 20. Fransergio 4. Giraldo J. 5. Indio 11. Jean Lucas 75. Kleiton 70. Pedro Lucas 12. Talles (G) 72. Thales Oleques 8. Zuluaga J.
Coaches
Jorge Castilho	Bruno Pivetti

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Boschilia ⚽,
25', 0 - 2, Neto Paraiba ⚽,
31', 1 - 2, Max Miller ⚽,
42', Allano 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Raphinha ↓, Cristovam ↑,
46', Neto Paraiba ↓, Indio ↑,
52', 2 - 2, Matheus Moraes ⚽,
55', Allan Godoi 🟨,
58', Vinicius Mingotti ↓, Daniel Amorim ↑,
66', Caua ↓, Vilar ↑,
71', Rodrigo Rodrigues ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
71', Allano ↓, Kleiton ↑,
71', Boschilia ↓, Pedro Lucas ↑,
75', Buga ↓, Bruno Cheron ↑,
75', Leo Ceara ↓, Vitinho ↑,
81', Matheus Moraes ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
88', Lucas Bonifacio 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Maringá won 2.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Operário PR could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Maringá won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:8 (average 0.9:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Maringá won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
19.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	0:3 ✺
16.03.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	Coritiba - Maringá	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.03.25	Maringá - União Carmolandense	4:2 ✺
25.02.25	Maringá - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.1 WTTWW
- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
18.03.25	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	1:3 penalties ✺
15.03.25	Operário Ferroviario - Londrina	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Operário Ferroviario - Tombense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
09.03.25	Operário Ferroviario - São-Joseense	2:1 penalties ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	Humaitá - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.25	Operário Ferroviario - Maringá	2:1
01.02.24	Operário Ferroviario - Maringá	0:1
29.01.23	Operário Ferroviario - Maringá	2:2
27.03.22	Maringá - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 penalties
24.03.22	Operário Ferroviario - Maringá	1:1
16.02.22	Maringá - Operário Ferroviario	2:0
25.04.21	Maringá - Operário Ferroviario	0:0

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