Match Info

BRAZIL: Paranaense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Willie Davids (Maringá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, NSports, Sky+, Vivo Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Maringá		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.5	2.3
	3.3	3.5	1.87
	3.05	3.3	2.29
	2.81	3.27	2.34	Watch
	2.9	3	2.3
	2.88	3.14	2.31	Watch
	3.05	3.3	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↓ (3.2)	3.29 ↓ (3.6)	2.24 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maringá
30.9%

Draw
28%

Athletico Paranaense
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

26%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

25.8%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Maringá - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dheimison (G) 14. Buga 3. Carvalho R. 7. Edison Negueba 10. Leo Ceara 99. Maranhao 9. Matheus Moraes 23. Max Miller 22. Raphinha 8. Rodrigo Santos 13. Tito	1. Mycael (G) 45. Belezi 5. Felipinho 6. Fernando 4. Figueiredo T. 3. Leo (C) 19. Luiz Fernando 18. Palacios H. 31. Raul 7. Velasco K. 10. Zapelli B.
Substitutes
32. Caua 2. Cristovam 31. Fernando 6. Joao Felix 12. Joao Gabriel (G) 19. Julio Rodrigues 28. Lucas Bonifacio 15. Parrudo 42. Rafael William (G) 11. Robertinho 21. Vitinho	65. Arthur Dias 98. Falcao 8. Giuliano 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 11. Isaac 57. Joao Cruz 61. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 17. Matheus Babi 88. Patrick 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis
Coaches
Jorge Castilho	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Maranhao ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Figueiredo T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Zapelli B. ↓, Isaac ↑,
60', Tito 🟨,
69', Leo Ceara ↓, Caua ↑,
69', Matheus Moraes ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
72', Velasco K. ↓, Tevis ↑,
72', Luiz Fernando ↓, Matheus Babi ↑,
82', Max Miller ↓, Cristovam ↑,
82', Buga ↓, Vitinho ↑,
86', Raphinha ↓, Robertinho ↑,
87', Fernando ↓, Patrick ↑,
87', Felipinho ↓, Falcao ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paranaense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paranaense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Maringá won 0.

Maringá is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Athletico PR is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Athletico PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Athletico PR will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Maringá won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 8:27 (average 0.6:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Maringá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2:10 (average 0.4:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.65%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
09.03.25	Coritiba - Maringá	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.03.25	Maringá - União Carmolandense	4:2 ✺
25.02.25	Maringá - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.25	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Operário Ferroviario - Maringá	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TWWWL
- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
13.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Guarany de Bagé	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
08.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Azuriz	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.25	Pouso Alegre - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
21.02.25	Azuriz - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
09.02.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	2:3
06.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	3:0
30.03.24	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
24.01.24	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	1:1
26.03.23	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	1:0
18.03.23	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	0:2
21.01.23	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	1:0

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