Match Info

BRAZIL: Paranaense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 19 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, NSports, Sky+, Vivo Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Maringá

	1	X	2
	1.42	4	8
	1.41	3.75	7
	1.47	4	7
	1.44	3.92	7.12	Watch
	1.44	3.9	7
	1.41	3.8	7.9	Watch
	1.47	4	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.5)	3.91 ↑ (3.7)	7.29 ↑ (7.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
63.9%

Draw
23.5%

Maringá
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.8%

25.1%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

24.2%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Maringá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Athletico Paranaense - Maringá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mycael (G) 45. Belezi 5. Felipinho 6. Fernando 19. Fernando L. 4. Figueiredo T. 3. Leo (C) 18. Palacios H. 31. Raul 7. Velasco K. 10. Zapelli B.	1. Dheimison (G) 14. Buga 3. Carvalho R. (C) 7. Edison Negueba 10. Leo Ceara 99. Maranhao 9. Matheus Moraes 23. Max Miller 22. Raphinha 8. Rodrigo Santos 13. Tito
Substitutes
27. Alan Kardec 65. Arthur Dias 98. Falcao 8. Giuliano 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 11. Isaac 57. Joao Cruz 21. Leozinho 17. Matheus Babi 88. Patrick 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis	32. Caua 2. Cristovam 31. Fernando 6. Joao Felix 12. Joao Gabriel (G) 19. Julio Rodrigues 28. Lucas Bonifacio 37. Masukake Y. 15. Parrudo 11. Robertinho 21. Vitinho
Coaches
Mauricio Barbieri	Jorge Castilho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', Max Miller ↓, Caua ↑,
45', Rodrigo Santos 🟨,
45+5', Felipinho 🟨,
45+5', 0 - 1, Maranhao ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Belezi ↓, Isaac ↑,
52', Matheus Moraes 🟨,
57', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
61', Figueiredo T. 🟨,
63', Fernando ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
63', Zapelli B. ↓, Giuliano ↑,
66', Leo Ceara ↓, Lucas Bonifacio ↑,
67', 0 - 2, Matheus Moraes ⚽,
74', Felipinho ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
74', Luiz Fernando ↓, Leozinho ↑,
81', Buga 🟨,
81', 0 - 3, Matheus Moraes ⚽,
82', Carvalho R. 🟥,
89', Edison Negueba ↓, Robertinho ↑,
89', Matheus Moraes ↓, Cristovam ↑,
89', Raphinha ↓, Joao Felix ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paranaense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paranaense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 3.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Athletico PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Maringá have a series of home games.

In this match Athletico PR is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Athletico PR to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 28:9 (average 1.9:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17:6 (average 1.9:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
16.03.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Guarany de Bagé	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
08.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Azuriz	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.25	Pouso Alegre - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
21.02.25	Azuriz - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWWWT
- Maringá FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
16.03.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	Coritiba - Maringá	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.03.25	Maringá - União Carmolandense	4:2 ✺
25.02.25	Maringá - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.25	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
16.03.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
09.02.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	2:3
06.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	3:0
30.03.24	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
24.01.24	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	1:1
26.03.23	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	1:0
18.03.23	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	0:2

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