Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 18

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Referee: Barbara I. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Marsaxlokk		Tarxien Rainbows

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	3.85	5.15	Watch
	1.52	4.41	4.96
	1.52	4.48	4.9	Watch
	1.5	3.8	5
	1.61	3.93	4.92
	1.53	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.64)	4.04 ↑ (3.85)	4.99 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsaxlokk
59.3%

Draw
22.5%

Tarxien Rainbows
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

23.9%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

19.8%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Tarxien Rainbows has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marsaxlokk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tarxien Rainbows than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tarxien Rainbows could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marsaxlokk - Tarxien Rainbows Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marsaxlokk (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Marsaxlokk (2.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Marsaxlokk (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 10. Arias U. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 7. Portelli N. 3. Weder	1. Cassar A. (C) 20. Borg L. 10. Claudio Murici 29. Donsu K. 6. Gaafar A. 9. Lokosa A. 27. Mosquera Y. 23. Nhayson 54. Panic P. 7. Tavinho 74. Vella A.
Substitutes
14. Attard E. 18. Barbara A. 15. Borg I. 23. Caruana T. 8. Ghio J. 99. Majok A. 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 33. Simkus D. 12. Vella D. (G) 21. Vella J.	17. Bird N. 8. Bird T. 4. D'Alessandro M. 88. Gatt K. 77. Grima M. 99. Isidoro 18. Mizzi S. 33. Musulin M. 94. Spiteri M. (G) 21. Vella K. 70. Wallisson Bahia
Coaches
Potenza V.	Scerri J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Dodo ⚽,
17', Lokosa A. 🟨,
19', Mosquera Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Grima M. ↓, Borg L. ↑,
66', Valverde A. ↓, Isidoro ↑,
67', Portelli N. ↓, Mihana R. ↑,
79', Arias U. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
79', Musulin M. ↓, Wallisson Bahia ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Nhayson ⚽,
87', 2 - 1, El Hasni O. ⚽,
89', Dodo ↓, Caruana T. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Marsaxlokk has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tarxien is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Marsaxlokk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, Marsaxlokk is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
18.01.26	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
Maltese Premier League
20.12.25	Valletta - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWTLL
- Tarxien Rainbows
Maltese Premier League
17.01.26	Hamrun Spartans - Tarxien Rainbows	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Naxxar Lions - Tarxien Rainbows	1:0 ✺
08.01.26	Mosta - Tarxien Rainbows	2:2 ✺
19.12.25	Gżira United - Tarxien Rainbows	2:1 ✺
12.12.25	Paola Hibernians - Tarxien Rainbows	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
02.10.25	Tarxien Rainbows - Marsaxlokk	0:2
Club Friendly
01.08.25	Tarxien Rainbows - Marsaxlokk	0:1

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