Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Main - Round 8

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tonna G. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Malta	20:00	TVM Sport+


	Marsaxlokk		Birkirkara

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.20	2.30
	2.55	3.10	2.42
	2.69	3.28	2.56
	2.67	3.32	2.43	Watch
	2.65	3.20	2.35
	2.69	3.33	2.46
	2.60	3.20	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.46)	3.23 ↓ (3.38)	2.43 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marsaxlokk
34.5%

Draw
28.1%

Birkirkara
37.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.4%

27.2%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

26.2%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsaxlokk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Birkirkara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Marsaxlokk will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marsaxlokk (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 8. Arias U. 11. Corbalan J. C. 10. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 20. Garcia M. 9. Linden R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E.	1. Ondoa F. (G) 99. Amarildo 28. Brewer S. 94. Fernandinho 3. Frazan 77. Garzia A. 22. Muscat Z. (C) 30. Pablo Gabriel 17. Pahama L. 9. Reid K. 74. Vassallo J.
Substitutes
14. Attard E. 24. Caruana L. 23. Caruana T. 1. Cassar A. (G) 15. Galea N. 16. Karamitsios G. 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 33. Simkus D. 17. Smajlagic S. 3. Weder	10. Busuttil J. 23. El Hazawi D. (G) 15. Fenech K. 24. Gill B. 14. Jefferson Vinicius 8. Rafa Santos 12. Sammut K. (G) 27. Sasere F. 4. Yago C. d. A. 20. Zahra J. 2. Zani B.
Coaches
Potenza V.	Zammit P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Garcia M. 🟨,
29', Fernandinho 🟨,
36', Garzia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 0, Garcia M. ⚽,
61', Fernandinho 🟨,
71', 2 - 0, Arias U. ⚽,
73', Pahama L. ↓, Sasere F. ↑,
73', Garzia A. ↓, Jefferson Vinicius ↑,
76', Linden R. ↓, Smajlagic S. ↑,
76', Arias U. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
79', Frazan ↓, Rafa Santos ↑,
82', Garcia M. ↓, Caruana L. ↑,
87', Minala J. ↓, Weder ↑,
87', Corbalan J. C. ↓, Attard E. ↑,
90', Brewer S. ↓, Busuttil J. ↑,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6: ) and 8th in the Premier League (First stage - Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 2.

Marsaxlokk has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Birkirkara has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Marsaxlokk has recorded 4 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:9 (averaging 0.8:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marsaxlokk against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:4 goals (averaging 0.7:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Marsaxlokk	10	5	2	3	16:14	2	17
6	Birkirkara	10	4	2	4	12:9	3	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
10.10.26	Marsaxlokk - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	2:5 ✺
05.09.26	Marsaxlokk - Mosta	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Valletta - Marsaxlokk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWTW
- Birkirkara FC
Maltese Premier League
10.10.26	Birkirkara - Valletta	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Birkirkara	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Sliema Wanderers - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Mosta - Birkirkara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
31.01.26	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	0:1
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1
28.09.25	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:0
27.04.25	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	1:1
08.03.25	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	1:1
29.08.24	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:2
09.03.24	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:0

Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara