Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Top 6 - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Referee: Barbara E. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Marsaxlokk		Birkirkara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.05	3	Watch
	2.17	3.27	3.12	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.1
	2.19	3.08	3.15
	2.1	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.58)	3.08 ↑ (2.88)	3.07 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsaxlokk
41.5%

Draw
29.2%

Birkirkara
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

31.5%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

31.3%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marsaxlokk's performance.

Birkirkara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marsaxlokk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 23. Caruana T. 11. Corbalan J. C. (C) 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 95. Marcelo Santos 25. Minala J. 5. Pepe E. 33. Simkus D. 3. Weder	19. Grech M. (G) 22. Busuttil J. 30. Cross N. 10. Dimech S. 17. Fenech K. 2. Lopez F. 59. Makoma D. 25. Micallef N. (C) 9. Reid K. 41. Roni Santos 6. Viveros S.
Coaches
Potenza V.	Festa G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Lopez F. ⚽,
45+1', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 🟨,
67', 🟨,
67', 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 0.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Marsaxlokk won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.4:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11
4	Birkirkara	6	3	1	2	9:4	5	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
06.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
Maltese Premier League
20.12.25	Valletta - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLLWL
- Birkirkara FC
Maltese Premier League
07.01.26	Valletta - Birkirkara	2:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Birkirkara - Victoria Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Maltese Premier League
21.12.25	Hamrun Spartans - Birkirkara	6:1 ✺
13.12.25	Floriana - Birkirkara	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Sliema Wanderers - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
28.09.25	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:0
27.04.25	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	1:1
08.03.25	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	1:1
29.08.24	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:2
09.03.24	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:0
04.11.23	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	0:2
Maltese FA Trophy
30.04.23	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	2:0

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