Match Info

AFC Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
China	iQIYI
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Pakistan	Tapmad
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Melbourne City		Buriram United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.87	Watch
	2.4	3.05	2.98	Watch
	2.6	3.1	3.12
	2.46	3.05	3.03	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.56	3	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.48)	3.05 ↓ (3.26)	3 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
37.8%

Draw
30.8%

Buriram United
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

28.6%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

30.5%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Buriram United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Buriram United than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Melbourne City - Buriram United Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Buriram will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.75 - Buriram (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Buriram (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 36. Shillington H. 22. Ferreyra G. 26. Souprayen S. 16. Behich A. (C) 13. Atkinson N. 8. Teague R. 30. Kuen A. 28. Younis M. 35. Memeti M. 14. Arzani D.	13. Etheridge N. (G) 14. Walsh S. 22. Ko Myeong-Seok 6. Good C. 40. Edu Mancha 23. Causic G. (C) 19. Schindler K. 32. Zulj R. 44. Zulj P. 9. Jaided S. 7. Bissoli
Substitutes
37. Antoniou P. 4. Bonetig L. 17. Caputo M. 2. Delbridge H. 39. Durakovic E. 44. Kutleshi B. 20. Mazzeo B. 40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G) 47. Rahmani K. 11. Rashani E. 19. Schreiber Z. 41. Wong L.	34. Bootprom C. (G) 2. Haiprakon S. 3. Hemviboon P. 77. Junker K. 10. Mueanta S. 28. Sanchez R. 30. Stojkovic F. 27. Sukjitthammakul P. 26. Toku E.
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Jackson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Causic G. 🟨,
33', Vidmar A. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Bissoli ⚽, Schindler K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Jaided S. ↓, Mueanta S. ↑,
67', Walsh S. 🟨,
68', Shillington H. ↓, Rahmani K. ↑,
68', Memeti M. ↓, Caputo M. ↑,
71', Walsh S. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
78', Kuen A. ↓, Rashani E. ↑,
81', Rashani E. 🟨,
82', Zulj P. 🟨,
90+1', Arzani D. ↓, Mazzeo B. ↑,
90+4', Bissoli 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Mazzeo B. ⚽, Younis M. (A),

Preview

First leg.

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals))

In recent matches, Melbourne City has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Buriram is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Buriram may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
27.02.26	Auckland FC - Melbourne City	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.26	Melbourne City - Gangwon	0:0 ✺
11.02.26	Ulsan HD - Melbourne City	1:2 ✺
Australian A-League
07.02.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLTWT
- Buriram United
Thai FA Cup
25.02.26	Buriram United - Khonkaen United	6:0 ✺
Thai League 1
21.02.26	Buriram United - Sukhothai	6:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.26	Buriram United - Shanghai Shenhua	2:0 ✺
Thai League 1
14.02.26	Pathum United - Buriram United	1:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
10.02.26	Chengdu Rongcheng - Buriram United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
21.10.25	Melbourne City - Buriram United	2:1
08.11.23	Melbourne City - Buriram United	0:1
25.10.23	Buriram United - Melbourne City	0:2

Upcoming Matches