Match Info

A-League - Round 18

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Elder D. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 9
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV, True ID, True Premier Football 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 7
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV
World	Onefootball


	Melbourne City		Melbourne Victory

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.5	2.5	Watch
	2.68	3.35	2.52	Watch
	2.78	3.6	2.59
	2.73	3.5	2.53	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.5
	2.76	3.46	2.6	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.39)	3.41 ↑ (3.37)	2.53 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
34.8%

Draw
27.8%

Melbourne Victory
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

27.5%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

27.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	45.5%	36.4%

Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Melbourne Victory (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 13. Atkinson N. 2. Delbridge H. 22. Ferreyra G. 16. Behich A. (C) 8. Teague R. 28. Younis M. 14. Arzani D. 21. Lopane A. 17. Caputo M. 35. Memeti M.	40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick (C) 2. Davidson J. 8. Valadon J. 10. Genreau D. 17. Velupillay N. 64. Mata J. 23. Jelacic K. 44. Nduka C.
Substitutes
39. Durakovic E. 30. Kuen A. 44. Kutleshi B. 40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G) 47. Rahmani K. 19. Schreiber Z. 26. Souprayen S.	11. Clarismario 25. Duncan J. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 16. Inserra J. 19. Machar Reec J. 34. Stella X. 9. Vergos N.
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Diles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Mata J. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Caputo M. ⚽, Younis M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Lopane A. ↓, Rahmani K. ↑,
59', Memeti M. ↓, Durakovic E. ↑,
60', Behich A. 🟨,
62', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
62', Jelacic K. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Mata J. ⚽, Grimaldi M. (A),
70', Caputo M. ↓, Kuen A. ↑,
70', Arzani D. ↓, Schreiber Z. ↑,
78', Rahmani K. ↓, Souprayen S. ↑,
81', Velupillay N. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
87', Esposito S. 🟨,
89', 1 - 3, Clarismario ⚽, Mata J. (A),
90+2', Mata J. ↓, Machar Reec J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Melbourne City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Melbourne City has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Melbourne City: Kanamori T. (Knee Injury) Leckie M. (Hamstring Injury) Nabbout A. (Calf Injury) Rashani E. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:23. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne City: 14.24% Melbourne Victory: 13.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
AFC Champions League
18.02.26	Melbourne City - Gangwon	0:0 ✺
11.02.26	Ulsan HD - Melbourne City	1:2 ✺
Australian A-League
07.02.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Macarthur FC - Melbourne City	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWTTL
- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
14.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:3 ✺
01.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Sydney	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
20.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	0:1
08.11.25	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	0:2
31.05.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:0
22.02.25	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	2:2
21.12.24	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	1:1
26.10.24	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:3
05.05.24	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	2:1 penalties

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