Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 10

Date: 11 April 2025, Friday

Location: Knights Stadium (Melbourne)


	Melbourne Knights		Dandenong Thunder

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.3	3.8	1.87
	2.85	3.4	2.19	Watch
	2.99	3.61	2.21	Watch
	2.9	3.8	2.17	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2)	3.6 ↑ (3)	2.13 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Knights
31%

Draw
25.6%

Dandenong Thunder
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

30.8%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

29.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne Knights's form might have worsened.

Dandenong Thunder has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dandenong Thunder's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Knights than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne Knights, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dandenong Thunder than the current prediction. (-19.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dandenong Thunder, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Melbourne Knights - Dandenong Thunder Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Melbourne Knights will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Dandenong Thunder will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dandenong Thunder: 64.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Melbourne Knights (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Dandenong Thunder will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Knights (votes: 1 - 20%). Dandenong Thunder (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
36', 0 - 1, Jalloh H. (Pen),
44', 0 - 2, Clark D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 0 - 3, van Amerongen T. ⚽,
77', Anastovski D. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
89', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Melbourne Knights won 3.

Recent matches Melbourne Knights is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Dandenong Thunder is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

Dandenong Thunder will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Melbourne Knights won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 23:28 (average 1.5:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Melbourne Knights won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:14 (average 1.9:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Knights
Australian NPL Victoria
04.04.25	Melbourne Knights - Preston Lions	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Melbourne Knights - St Albans Dinamo	3:1 ✺
21.03.25	Melbourne Knights - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:2 ✺
14.03.25	Green Gully - Melbourne Knights	3:0 ✺
09.03.25	Melbourne Knights - Port Melbourne Sharks	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLLW
- Dandenong Thunder
Australian NPL Victoria
05.04.25	Dandenong Thunder - Port Melbourne Sharks	5:1 ✺
28.03.25	Oakleigh Cannons - Dandenong Thunder	3:1 ✺
22.03.25	Dandenong Thunder - Avondale	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Dandenong Thunder - Heidelberg United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
12.08.24	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong Thunder	1:2
03.05.24	Dandenong Thunder - Melbourne Knights	0:3
13.08.23	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong Thunder	2:1
06.05.23	Dandenong Thunder - Melbourne Knights	0:1
22.07.22	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong Thunder	1:2
23.04.22	Dandenong Thunder - Melbourne Knights	3:1
Club Friendly
19.01.22	Dandenong Thunder - Melbourne Knights	0:2

Melbourne Knights - Dandenong Thunder: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide