Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 34

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Television Melilla


	Melilla		Atlético Paso

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.75	5.75
	1.46	3.9	5.75
	1.45	3.95	6.2
	1.43	4.02	6.28
	1.45	4.1	6.41
	1.42	4.25	6.97
	1.45	3.95	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.39)	3.99 ↑ (3.95)	6.22 ↓ (7.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
62.7%

Draw
22.8%

Atlético Paso
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

22.9%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

22.1%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Atlético Paso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Paso than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Melilla - Atlético Paso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Ramos I. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Revuelta A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 1 - 2, Revuelta A. ⚽,
70', 2 - 2, Morillo V. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Atlético Paso is Relegated to

In recent matches, Melilla has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Paso is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético Paso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Melilla is the clear favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Melilla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Melilla won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
27.04.25	Colonia Moscardó - Melilla	4:4 ✺
19.04.25	Melilla - Móstoles URJC	3:2 ✺
13.04.25	Getafe B - Melilla	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Melilla - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Coria - Melilla	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWLWT
- Atlético Paso
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
27.04.25	Atlético Paso - Tenerife B	3:2 ✺
20.04.25	Atlético Paso - Colonia Moscardó	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Móstoles URJC - Atlético Paso	4:1 ✺
06.04.25	Atlético Paso - Getafe B	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Navalcarnero - Atlético Paso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
22.12.24	Atlético Paso - Melilla	2:3
22.01.23	Atlético Paso - Melilla	1:1
04.09.22	Melilla - Atlético Paso	2:0

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