Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 30

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Television Melilla


	Melilla		Navalcarnero

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.88	2.75
	2	2.95	3.5
	2.44	2.85	2.95
	2.44	2.78	3.14
	2.33	3.02	3.11
	2.44	2.85	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.73)	2.89 ↑ (2.83)	3.07 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
38.7%

Draw
31.6%

Navalcarnero
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

32.1%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

32.6%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melilla's performance.

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Melilla - Navalcarnero Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Navalcarnero (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Navalcarnero (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Lolo Gonzalez ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Recent matches Melilla is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Navalcarnero in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Melilla is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Melilla won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Melilla won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
30.03.25	Coria - Melilla	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	Melilla - Illescas	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Conquense - Melilla	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Melilla - Rayo Majadahonda	0:0 ✺
02.03.25	Unión Sur Yaiza - Melilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLTL
- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
30.03.25	Navalcarnero - Atlético Paso	1:0 ✺
23.03.25	Colonia Moscardó - Navalcarnero	0:3 ✺
16.03.25	Navalcarnero - Móstoles URJC	4:2 ✺
09.03.25	Getafe B - Navalcarnero	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	Tenerife B - Navalcarnero	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
24.11.24	Navalcarnero - Melilla	2:2
07.05.23	Melilla - Navalcarnero	0:0
08.01.23	Navalcarnero - Melilla	0:1

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